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[虚拟币交流]
58亿美元期权风暴来袭!比特币能否站稳6.5万美元关键点位?(转)
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在周五价值逾58亿美元的期权合约到期前,比特币在四周内首次突破6.5万美元。一些分析师表示,期权到期可能导致加密货币市场的波动性加剧。
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9 i" Z$ n; Q5 L+ U* | ?) }1 ICumberland Labs研究主管Chris Newhouse表示,比特币跌破这一价格水平将引发大幅下跌,而持续突破之后可能会出现反弹。
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Newhouse表示:“比特币现在处于6.5万美元的水平,并正在慢慢测试更高价位,要么突破并维持在这个价位,要么不突破并出现大幅下跌。我们已经转向一个更以微观结构为主导的交易环境,在这个环境中,
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) N$ n. c: Y+ {4 _, Y' p- e" d清算、融资利率和对波动性的投机是价格的主要驱动因素。”
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3 h+ D1 n3 a, I: X0 R比特币周四一度上涨3.7%,至65,826美元,为自7月30日以来的最高水平,随后回吐涨幅。规模较小、流动性较差的代币上涨幅度更大,其中狗狗币上涨超过9%,Solana上涨5%,Avalanche上涨6.5%。- u, ^* q3 b3 G" l t3 [, f
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Newhouse表示,从历史上看,比特币在8月和9月的阻力位一直是6.5万美元。“我们正在重新测试它。”; j4 P: j1 o! ~* E; u7 @, O7 f3 \$ s
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在期权市场,交易商将面临周五到期的逾58亿美元合约。: y3 g7 P* _5 D5 a$ s$ ^8 k
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加密衍生品交易所Deribit首席执行官Luuk Strijers表示:“在到期的比特币期权中,约有20%是价内期权。随着交易员平仓或展期,这种大规模的期权到期可能加剧市场波动或活动,这也可能影响价格。”
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7 ?. L0 x. r0 F: Y2 f* H) k5 p根据Deribit编制的数据,在所有到期合约中,比特币期权的未平仓合约集中在10万美元、9万美元、7万美元和6.5万美元左右。: P3 f8 `. s- @7 L% [: W5 t
0 g+ u6 l" w& V: a( K8 n. mVertex 首席执行官兼联合创始人Darius Tabai 表示:“由于伽马对冲将市场控制在6万美元和6.5万美元附近,市场应该会在到期前出现波动。”
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1 F5 J- Z7 g8 G( Z& Z0 z随着投资者涌入期权市场,提供此类合约的交易商要么大量买入,要么大量卖出,以抵消他们快速变化的风险敞口——这种动态被称为“伽马对冲”。% ]. x1 z# b) v3 f2 S0 w
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