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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
3 o2 U; W5 e# i- L" `2 n
1 e C, j9 t8 q! h n' k 初盘高水,豪门要防冷) x& k! A5 B. }
9 }- J0 j8 F K% q2 ?2 O. i
' I, [; T$ x/ [, a2 z8 g" c8 d
09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
P- d) d0 ^% K# L 英超主队
. {( i9 d7 i, i 胜:11场 79%, |4 h5 ~, W7 ]
平:2场 14%
e' Q( w9 H! i7 i3 P1 @ 负:1场 7%( D3 ] w3 ^& V( s) _ F
& W L" g, J; L Q$ [ 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。0 b0 D$ `/ |& d7 z* e
5 @4 S5 q9 |, { 一、初盘阶段' A0 f4 f& [. v v" P( E s
: O, P, V7 K& Z
具体到水位如下:1 p9 |+ y9 A) r& r( j
初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜# j+ ]& R" Z* n7 X6 `) c( E. G/ h
初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
2 l" L E+ c! s. z, v) N2 h 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平; S4 }& `- J9 a& H' \. S
/ e1 ~8 _7 j& B" D- F
分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
" y0 T; G6 x- `9 g9 K5 B 3 j" J- t& Z, F
维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.007 C! O# I7 j* u. `/ y" [
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.028 v7 r; m \. K4 G) b/ Q. y2 h
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
& [" _% f+ `5 d# Z0 `9 [: _
( {2 {& @' J4 [7 D5 _3 g$ O1 I 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
- [4 @/ ?3 E9 _3 W+ x 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
5 X# o3 n/ W& E- S9 c$ R* a
5 i0 B8 @2 o& G5 B& i0 Z G 二、临场阶段
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+ `* r5 |3 X" m9 P6 v( ~5 I9 c 具体到盘口如下:; Z8 V6 ]" a. t: s+ ]1 q
临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
& I6 h1 K. _8 |; r) ?! ?' D 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
9 r; w P$ r* B1 ` 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
8 F4 I( F! a7 N/ s% V- S! N * F+ V" A% \8 p& b5 n" j1 J
热刺VS伯恩利
$ i* y7 T9 t# L 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
$ N$ [! p. W- C& \/ [ S2 M 终盘:0.77球半1.09! J9 _0 _* x) l7 j
# [7 i! M6 Z2 d% n
临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。9 U4 z) z" S9 ?, Z: n7 [+ |) v
$ J, I o7 l* \ 三、球队表现
1 W- x }7 g, S; K4 I4 [7 h 5 Q) d7 T/ O1 x
在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。+ H/ K. t% i& z
* n/ d1 _# r9 ]. ~# ^/ y8 Z 四、投注要点
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% @- ]% s: [; O" R 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
3 u; v, l1 x4 S+ [; E 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平6 {: T5 T( Z* g, c0 C; e
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能$ h$ z0 u. V- v d# @+ |
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31- E# i6 c+ s) q' N) E- |/ G
要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
+ B q- @* C- W6 D 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
' l! Y" S, c) m& y5 I 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视 j" w) S4 ?- z$ P- s
5 m. A3 z2 P) \9 i1 C8 Q8 C4 g 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
$ ^. a( q. n% ^& u k 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
/ ?% X) E7 a+ K& y 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
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