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[虚拟币交流]
Peter Schiff：比特币现货ETF获准可能对币价产生灾难性影响（4日转）
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9 ~7 v& P& ~3 @ w5 T+ G2 Q
尽管市场对美国当局可能批准第一档比特币现货ETF充满期待，知名比特币怀疑论者、1 U4 m' }" |( U4 u
提倡拥抱黄金的Peter Schiff警告，比特币狂热人士要小心不要抱持过多期望。
! [6 z: ?$ l, y) H8 aPeter Schiff在社群平台X上贴文表示，比特币现货ETF获准可能对比特币价格产生灾难性影响。他说，关于美国上
1 R! {3 x* |! _5 ]* w. m市推出比特币现货ETF的展望，已经支撑了比特币的价格和投机性需求长达数年。这代表，如果预料中的机构投资
3 E( g G% m( Y2 w; O; d5 n需求没有来临，就算ETF获得核准上市，比特币价格也会暴跌，「当心冲击！」/ D9 f( @* @6 u0 U0 S3 o
Peter Schiff长期来一直对比特币持怀疑态度，而且多年来持续预测比特币会灭亡，然而比特币每轮周期的表现都! ^8 n5 F+ N3 r) x
证明他是错的。他的推文收到比特币支持者的大量留言，这些支持人士提醒他，正如黄金ETF并没有减损实体黄金
3 H2 {0 b) l9 Z' _' n2 A) S( ~的需求一样，如果出现比特币现货ETF，只会为比特币市场增添动能。& W! ?; |2 `: D( Q8 Q; v
然而，搜集许多数据的顾问业者Matrixport也提醒说，比特币支持人士可能必须再等更久的时间，才能见到首档
9 F2 t8 C( C6 C6 O; V$ d. \' \比特币现货ETF在美国上市。该公司预测，美国证管会(SEC)可能会在1月10日的最终期限否决所有比特币现货ETF
& R9 g$ u/ Z, [# c的申请。
) m7 ?( S X+ m* `7 Y2 s; RMatrixport的最新预测和许多ETF分析师先前的预测截然相反，一些分析师预期这些申请案有90%的机率会在1月$ \# a$ |' r& A/ E2 Q+ Q
10日的最终期限前闯关成功。不过，Matrixport表示，尽管ETF申请者频繁与SEC的工作人员开会，但「所有申请
% w0 G6 M7 Y8 v$ S, V案都没有达到能获得SEC核准前必须达到的关键要求。」Matrixport表示，预期在2024年的第2季前，都不会见
; j: m0 ?# l) g5 E1 s1 N到有任何一档比特币现货ETF获准上市。; ]+ G$ q8 [ c& o
该公司的分析指出，目前在SEC的五人投票委员小组中，包括SEC主席Gary Gensler在内的民主党人占了多数地
! d# G) f. j+ c+ h4 s1 s位，因此不太可能投票通过核准比特币现货ETF。) P7 L$ P2 Y; N+ z, W5 p
许多报告援引匿名消息人士预测，第一档比特币现货ETF会在1月2日前获得核准，然而这并没有发生。随着SEC在6 i2 Y, [3 w3 L% a3 @
1月10日做出决定的最后期限逼近，市场的乐观情绪正转变为怀疑，证据包括加密货币挖矿公司的股价走软，而且; {! k7 D3 r0 H$ X. j
几档与比特币相关的美国股票卖压涌现。此外，比特币在1月3日盘中一度大跌9%。$ x' J% J' |! W6 F. w- _0 Y( ]
彭博社ETF分析师Eric Balchunas先前一直看好比特币现货ETF有99%的机率会在2024年第1季获准上市，现在他
) X( O0 ?7 j- Q相信，SEC仍有「些许」机会可能拒绝比特币现货ETF的申请案。
. Y7 b! \, F% R& v/ O( [( J( q: a5 l
$ \; P7 O3 j: @& _: c! n9 n4 s+ z" b7 @/ y7 d" Z# s# r# r# Y
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产生灾难性影响的是要看啊) _$ }9 T9 L+ U5 B1 {
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