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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资：比特币牛市短期内不会发生！宏观经济对风险资产不利（转载）
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不少人推测加密货币市场已进入熊市底部，或可以在近期建仓等待反涨。但女股神
; j- j7 t. A8 N& OCathie Wood旗下投资管理公司方舟投资(ARK Invest)于近日发布的比特币8月分析报告指出，多项宏观经济数据' u3 k- v% w9 i1 ^
表明短期加密货币市场恐将下跌，前景不容乐观..: Z4 q) W5 Y2 `" [( C
长期看涨比特币？短期看跌？# U! h; _( |! l' Q, \2 g- p7 c+ }
尽管方舟投资近期研究指出，比特币和人工智能的整合将能有效提高企业生产力、降低成本，会是未来的乐观看
4 ?+ J2 y/ R3 I; T* g" w; }9 H涨信号，但考虑到近期宏观经济数据，比特币牛市的发展恐不会在短期内发生。% H) u1 `2 Q) V0 a! c7 n4 \
据研究报告，方舟投资列举了加密货币前景不太乐观的几大原因，其一是自然利率与实际联邦基金政策利率的变# ]/ {: j6 ]9 s7 n
化。随着通货膨胀持续放缓，将推高实际联邦基金政策利率并扩大与自然利率之间的差距，该指标对宏观经济影% U/ @1 d; z4 L. i( c9 Z5 G
响相对悲观。2 l5 ]: }7 N. X3 T7 `1 v2 A
另分析师也关注到GDP(国内生产毛额)和GDI(国内生产收入)之间的差异。据报告指出，GDP和GDI应紧密结合，7 m- s1 P; z# s: c1 f6 j4 m4 G
因为赚取的收入应等于所生产的商品和服务的价值。然而，最新数据显示，GDP比GDI高出约3%，这表明生产数
! h4 y% y. N- I: f据的向下修正是可以预期的。# p9 a" Y s: U0 p- R
除此之外，美国ZF已连续六个月下调就业数据，突显了劳动力市场的疲软。而上一次连续六个月向下修正是在2 s1 f! q8 b7 L, W8 s( A2 r. O
2007年，也就是金融危机爆发之前，这一事实也值得注意。
. w& Z) x6 B* D0 W% E3 t: M. s& U, y宏观经济情况可能对风险资产不利; o# }4 Y" H2 ?6 ^
另该报告还引用了Johnson Redbook Index(红皮书同店零售销售指数)，数据指出8月份同店销售总额出现12个. J( P" N, t' ~" P# i: Q, a+ t
月以来的首次反弹，这表明通膨正在上升，ZF可能会施加上行压力。
# e+ W7 J1 y$ N) A3 b R上述指标或也表明，当前的宏观经济不确定性可能在未来几个月继续存在。然而，我们无法确定若经济增长放缓
4 \# O' _+ g; i7 j& f5 A( D( [* P8 w和通膨上升，加密市场会如何反应，但这种情况通常被认为对风险资产非常不利。% g7 N0 P0 t! s( ~
值得一提的是，方舟投资与加密货币交易所产品发行商21Shares曾共同合推比特币现货ETF，但美国证券交易委: }! J1 I1 V+ }
员会(SEC)于今年8月延长了审查时间。对此，Cathie Wood认为，SEC最终势必会通过现货ETF，但时间会落在灰7 X6 B; X" r7 } q9 u3 b
度赢得与SEC的诉讼后。
, m# u8 I) S- `0 C+ K9 }* ]4 Y# `+ V. t
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牛市或者熊市不是好预测的，还是尽量预测出短期走势吧，如果你想短抄的话 |
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