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[虚拟币交流]
比特币突破3万美元！分析师：BTC波动率来到5年低点（转载）
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近期比特币市场在29,000美元区间持续震荡，但昨(1)晚最低一度来到28,585美元后，
5 C/ \% g% h. `: M3 D9 z开启一波快速反弹，撰稿当下最高来到30,047美元，再次站上3万美元、以太坊也在1,880美元附近震荡。7 E; I2 @" S7 ~2 E5 X/ J- t+ W0 m
比特币波动压力到达顶峰，爆发即将到来
9 Y! [& h" F& j1 p+ I/ n对于近期币价走势，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报指出，当前的低波动性正处于「火山爆发」
# G3 C: ?7 B* b7 r前夕。报告首先指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄金：比特币的五日波动率目前低于纳斯达克
# a( o7 e" q: G# U指数、标普500指数，甚至低于黄金。IVs也紧随其后，跌至历史最低点。
: h! b* O K, y% p$ u* H& T时间再拉长一些，比特币当前30天的波动率也已来到近5年的低点，这样的低波动率仅在2019年1月持续了8天。, J$ D- k8 Y% Q0 }1 P: d- W
历史经验告诉我们，比特币的波动性减弱往往意味着即将出现较大幅度的波动，因此当前的低波动期或许很快将
6 F# b0 A% n7 w% S; G. B结束。K33高级分析师Vetle Lunde对此表示：我的短期观点是，市场的波动压力即将到达顶峰，爆发即将到来。) T2 T2 u7 j: j8 U& d+ t" P
SEC对比特币现货ETF的回应将在短期造成比特币大幅波动
: v8 Y" E* u4 f8 J( I% w6 \同时Lunde认为比特币的波动需要大型事件作为催化剂，在他看来，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对Ark21Shares、
+ n0 R r" N) t3 G贝莱德和其他公司提交的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)文件的回应，可能在未来几周或几个月内造成比特币波动。
6 _4 I7 s7 {4 B- f5 F8 x0 W- G但Lunde并未对此作出积极判断，而是认为所有申请都将会被驳回并延期：我预计所有正在进行的申请都将被推) L4 W- l4 U4 d' D! X& @
迟，至少要等到Grayscale与SEC的诉讼得出结果。但我预计这些事件对市场波动的影响不会那么大。尽管如此，
: e m: L& o- R' ~3 r$ a我还是倾向于持有大量比特币，并在整个夏天更积极地增持比特币，以防判决早于预期。; m1 Y8 |0 z4 K U
K33看好2024年加密货币市场
# P7 T3 D2 k. v( k3 W* I此外，Lunde也对近期发生骇客事件的稳定币流动性协议Curve Finance作出评价，认为当前该协议面临的清算风
/ T0 Y# m) F- v# N' ~5 o险将对市场造成难以预测的负面影响：这些清算可能会对市场产生巨大的负面效应，推高波动性，这些事件很难
! T' B1 X/ G$ B提前预测。
3 }& W t9 l6 Q [( a' s- c3 D, N但总体而言，Lunde仍然对加密货币在2024年的表现表示看好，无论是在比特币减半之前还是之后，以及比特币- _! Q" H$ B3 k7 F6 Z
现货ETF的走向如何。
5 i/ y, |; |6 M8 G, W J) x: y
. a, F, u2 o7 r% R4 }4 X0 q6 S2 ?1 c( K8 i8 Z9 x" a+ O% _
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