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小分3种情况:5 N( e0 c4 G0 @: t' _
7 R% a' X6 X: h+ r$ d, N1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。7 L& N2 g3 q Z' Q1 J* x
6 V1 h) ^6 W P6 \! K2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。: `1 @" E0 _# ]' Z
/ G; Y( t8 b9 R* v- L* f$ Y6 u3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。1 l( M" D, U; r4 r" H; A$ p
C8 l: W( K% _" B2张牌8或9点的情况有:
. T& ^4 Z, |$ K# Z( Q
$ ]3 U# F1 _: S" {6 b7 O5 g) F1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
4 a- P" n1 E9 l1 F
9 _ o/ V9 g$ c. g: E+ e1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4153 I. H* X9 q$ f, ^& s2 s
2 C* F4 ` f/ t4 L4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
& x. J. X/ U) `. K3 q
) N6 D* i+ a5 W* d; ?. R0 r8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
' C( Z: b |! j" ^* f
O0 _) H2 H% p+ w由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
1 P" m. r: F. r9 x3 w y) w1 O
$ e2 O$ d6 n4 [3 K* o4 o; g通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。* p- [8 L! f5 H) a) B$ e6 g
6 X1 c+ [3 ?4 \! ]5 h- X' Q" }; I那么我们可以得出
1 g1 v1 N* G3 e ~$ D' ]6 x! W; f7 f. [2 F; q' C. W
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
+ `: U- H0 Y6 e2 x' `% z" J: R% w- Q2 ~& d
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
6 r# _* j. d8 m7 Q. l
' z9 H+ t1 E8 ~3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
1 A- O/ H! G* L+ U; R" _0 X; l- V! w0 w3 r" J g* @5 _- I* e# N4 q
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
' D/ M( l/ e6 n- B; |
- A) {3 a7 w' p3 v; l' F3 j5 q百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677/ `5 u* g" O; l0 p# P% w% z
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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