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小分3种情况:
( x7 l d) i& G; H4 h p: n2 u- L
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。9 r/ k! m- U2 b2 S4 y8 d; w
+ V& c6 b1 G, V2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
, W5 B* V6 i' B, [/ k, g" T; D, c T2 i" W* ~5 y
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
. u* a( K+ k& b2 u9 C) V7 `
( m6 L0 ]; h1 _( L/ u2张牌8或9点的情况有:8 E; M2 i0 t! A3 e- h* D2 _5 m
: q7 Q: [: _& z8 }' D' w
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
, n9 o# Z2 k0 ?; X0 F$ P k6 F7 a1 B& A
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4156 ?( Q6 t- x' N8 s
3 e- b1 x# B! I9 R7 q7 o4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
; b) w0 V w e
4 g# o1 x2 `$ C3 B0 r8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415/ H: `3 J. m! m! k0 N
; }1 E) O( i1 c$ x1 I/ P
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
' W" \+ `, {# M0 w! {. O
. a/ J$ `7 s K, c, K$ \通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
! y; ]& n. k# s; t1 {* O
3 ^2 @8 z* F6 H9 R4 m那么我们可以得出
& Q% F) H- P: f8 l' d9 O6 z; F& m- `( p% _: ~
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
# m! Y; A+ X0 B: X: }' p- H% ?% t9 d* L! S; G1 i# q
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
+ u" `8 S" Z; X2 i: T, a* s
7 Z% h& A* Z7 g9 ]! A: q3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491! x- |0 B: w3 G+ z" m+ x- J( A/ x
& d- L# l7 j( |3 B- ?
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
6 T% y' Y, B# Y" ]* p$ c @$ i6 {! H8 H! C
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.6211306774 X7 o M& g3 H- \- x# o! c9 `; M
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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