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为什么我认为未来市场中存在巨大的做空机会?
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我相信在接下来的 2 个月内,ETH 在 1200 美元附近有一个巨大的空头机会。我们还没有看到真正的崩溃,7 月 / 8 月可能是最糟糕的月份。下面是我的想法:
我们目前正处于一种大的“宏观交易”市场体制中,如果将$ETH和$BTC的价格与通货膨胀图画在一起,你会发现加密市场对宏观非常敏感,加密货币一直与美股指数紧密相连。
准确地说,相对于美股,ETH 的相关性约为 0.8,Beta 值约为 2.0 ,鉴于当前加密货币缺乏催化剂,这种情况在未来几个月内不太可能发生变化。ETH 合并可能会在 10 月 / 11 月进行,而 Dank Sharding 路线图显示我们还需要几年的时间。
简单地说——至少在未来2个月内,ETH很可能只是对美股的一个杠杆和流动性赌注
现在的问题是,我认为美股仍有很大的下跌空间。在一个可以说更加不确定的环境中,我们仍然只比最近的 ATH 下降了约 30%,而 2008 年的 ATH 之前下降了约 45%。
股票价格受两件事驱动 ——未来收益和您愿意为这些远期收益支付的杠杆。最近我们看到的股票下跌在很大程度上是由于利率预期上升而导致的倍数压缩。我们现在才刚刚开始看到收益修正率降低的早期阶段,与我交谈的许多对冲基金/基金分析师仍然没有正视全面衰退,而且很少有人愿意,因为这是一个艰难的选择。
因此,未来几个月里,可能会有更多次低收益修正,特别是考虑到这是一个很少有投资者经历过的市场特殊阶段。这将使股市走低,加密货币的不利因素也将随之而来。
顺便说一句,人们经常认为股票的价格已经很便宜了(即“Coinbase 以 8 倍市盈率交易”),但这并不准确,当收益仍然需要削减时,下降仍会继续。
那么为什么对后市信息不足呢?因为这里聚集着太多不好的消息
1) 6/29的年中GDP展望
2) CPI 公布 + 7 月初的 FOMC
3) 7 月下旬开始的 2Q22 公司财报公布
所有的这些都可能进一步破坏股市,以下是我的期望结果:
明天将公布GDP增长情况,预计数字将显示连续下降。这将加强我们现在处于经济衰退的立场,因为我们已经看到连续两个季度的负增长,
经济衰退会带来3个方面的影响:
1)增加更多的不确定性=更多的下跌
2) 盈利将需要进一步削减
3) 进一步压缩股价
我不相信经济衰退会导致美联储不那么激进地加息,并让股市出现反弹的论点,因为:
1) 通货膨胀仍然很高,还没有足够的放缓
2) 加息次数减少带来的好处将被较低的收益+不确定性所抵消
这将进一步削弱市场的活力。此外,最近的市场走势表明,人们对美联储围绕加息发表的评论不以为然,这只是增加了下跌的可能性。
如果GDP+CPI+FOMC都按计划进行——我们将可能再次看到三位数的ETH
总而言之,我相信1200美元的ETH有一个非常大的下跌空间,万事俱备,只欠东风。记住要有保护措施
只是分享我的观点,此内容仅作为观点分享,不构成任何投资建议。 来源:金色财经 |
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