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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 ; S- y4 X8 A+ A0 O, Q
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. ! Z0 {% C+ F, E* \4 d" W# B' r
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。
7 d ?3 {- A1 V" H" x: \6 O0 E N5 a以太坊基金集体亏损 + I; v& Y) J# u% B' L7 K( t; R, z
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 0 K9 x0 m/ B6 `2 s
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 ' K+ E. @* g* T& Y
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。 1 w" u+ v1 ]0 {5 v& ]- F: G6 j
8 T4 r- _7 f! r9 O& Y: f
编辑切换为居中 7 l m; \/ ]" c
流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
6 o- v w! [7 L7 r这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 $ J& \( I" Z" R6 O
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 - t9 P7 y4 Z/ v% k# R4 e
# S, h5 T9 T6 f1 i. V- c编辑切换为居中 8 o/ c5 `# M- M" V9 u" [
6月5日的TVL以太坊
9 P! ?4 [: y6 e9 ?9 R0 r& _, ^但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。 ! ~6 g4 R6 _4 d
宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
( g+ Q# F" Z( W% o$ }- D$ Q# C- ]6 G男性讲述金融时报: - \; S8 c$ M2 `3 G7 B
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
- Z$ d0 r) _0 D d; f
呆滞的技术面
: k. F& ~6 ?# f; i3 H自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
) S1 b* G% y; N8 G3 q5 z具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 , m. ]8 r- z- z3 u1 [ c
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
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% D$ j: m2 P& G; L G/ r! X
编辑切换为居中 $ d( X+ l) r. q: C) J; d
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
1 h: H2 j+ k/ q% m8 v: m1 a如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
& D, h( W' a7 N交易所的ETH储备正在增加 3 W& T9 w% P. A9 y8 }3 z
CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. 7 c2 t/ N' G' d0 C+ O; H3 @; z
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 - A$ q- v0 \" e) T! s# n& o9 Z
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编辑切换为居中
! p7 V' T4 A) t" E2 X2 I以太坊外汇储备
2 v3 e) h$ K% c7 R: S: _通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 ' ]* h5 t$ \( J9 \) @& T
来源：金色财经 |
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