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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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& a: S8 N( T: ^/ W- D 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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" y" d2 z# H8 T- P) _2 s 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。0 D) p- a- Q" r$ [% T
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。# a1 X8 F7 p! Q9 @1 z
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。: p' d+ W- M6 o j
: I: Q: H. P- [! t% C0 } 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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9 H/ B7 s6 |4 z- H/ r& U价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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/ D# a) u* K( c% @" k* R# M- T 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。 A" z9 g) v& e/ f) X5 t
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”& ~: p e: ]6 P, x6 o- o& Z6 K
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。2 b9 _% m- N4 V$ F$ A1 h* ^! o
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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$ K( K6 A* o0 A% }' ~ 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。: b4 `2 ~& C1 |- g2 n
# h7 v) C4 P$ ^8 o2 c( q# B/ G 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。8 U( e: J' g" p3 n
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，" j! H8 W0 h: T( Q% N6 \4 _2 @" u# [" k
7 z! I$ m1 H3 b; T市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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