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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
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初盘高水,豪门要防冷
. E7 L z1 \0 z: L2 q6 k( ^, u/ S8 Q % x7 F9 J& D% X: ^% T" |. T
1 O; g; U" r9 x- G
09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
, K, b$ @* Y* j( M" \0 G 英超主队
% e7 [8 X+ V2 H( ]' w 胜:11场 79%
. P0 k9 R9 ^4 d! m 平:2场 14%
% b# ]' u# ?6 V0 T: ]- L6 A! x: g: g 负:1场 7%
8 T3 g/ ?7 V( j, W) p1 g
% G! W5 m# T9 U: d! W0 p 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
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一、初盘阶段
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; d0 v w7 u. i 具体到水位如下:
0 Z7 s) Q/ y$ B: y' E 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
1 i7 I0 b, E8 g3 \ ?" T 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平, o! N0 W; p3 e, V! F n) |$ A
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平/ w" e, w* V% G
9 o8 [: Q4 @9 P4 p9 L 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
8 A) P* E/ V4 R/ Q" l 9 S% s6 Y8 x; K
维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
% i; V x8 }' K' O 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
- U. W& w* i' { q- E: L 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
9 W+ }: `' E" c: w6 P7 e6 _
6 Y& S4 o. S2 E" b! F 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
7 z3 t7 e* P5 K) J* \ }% O 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。# T" S, q' Y4 ^5 f* W1 ^7 L
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二、临场阶段. n/ e; [4 o/ t+ m, m. \* [
% d6 W5 N& M4 H/ f
具体到盘口如下:0 Z% A; N8 U9 p3 T2 G
临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜 Y- }4 b+ |2 `9 G6 Z0 B
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平5 p" ?7 M7 P# Z( o/ q( r5 `
分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:0 {: A5 ~, j( p! ^
" A, r, U1 A1 F2 V9 |
热刺VS伯恩利
- s6 I9 C- z7 H* k8 w" `& n/ e 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00' Q8 V' j! p' H e7 V. r* b
终盘:0.77球半1.092 D4 R& X5 W2 K! g0 L
1 F! e' [+ X$ E- Z# @2 q 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
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三、球队表现( F3 A$ j+ @: C6 E3 `# q3 h- u; Y
2 h" m! Y* \+ P9 J" b) A+ @! T 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。# M# W3 ^1 ]2 S( k$ _& C0 [6 k
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四、投注要点
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' X! ?( W4 T# B. y4 F 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
- r4 H# ]2 P$ r9 R+ q; r( Y3 M 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
4 a7 x/ ~* s7 c( t! w" c- ` 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
1 j1 j* l* o. L' T- [ e 要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选316 |. u, |% Y1 n% v0 |
要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
& t8 B5 @$ O3 F1 e, s; p 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
; o" f; X6 _! W3 @$ I9 F: O* P 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
" w) E: O8 Y' P( t" Z4 v+ f
+ }+ X9 h M l( U* R" q/ n 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
1 K+ {+ e) D; Y) Y1 Q3 |2 x5 m% r4 c 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
5 q2 T8 F8 J/ s; C! ^ 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
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