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[lastpost] => 2813466 币安币逆袭之路：从2025年熊市低点到平台生态扩张，BNB为何被称“交易所黄金”？（... 1774035615 叫我十三
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币突破3万美元！分析师：BTC波动率来到5年低点（转载）
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近期比特币市场在29,000美元区间持续震荡，但昨(1)晚最低一度来到28,585美元后，. ?) T! ?* U0 q2 Z6 X# \* K
开启一波快速反弹，撰稿当下最高来到30,047美元，再次站上3万美元、以太坊也在1,880美元附近震荡。
. H* [! @8 m2 N1 ~& @2 M7 {4 |# z" T3 c比特币波动压力到达顶峰，爆发即将到来2 ~9 P% V' m* D6 H |& D
对于近期币价走势，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报指出，当前的低波动性正处于「火山爆发」0 x1 P- g7 V/ s" e
前夕。报告首先指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄金：比特币的五日波动率目前低于纳斯达克( z5 n# k7 a/ m: V9 x! G+ k0 Q+ S' ~
指数、标普500指数，甚至低于黄金。IVs也紧随其后，跌至历史最低点。
% e. l, ~5 }2 e( g! w" T时间再拉长一些，比特币当前30天的波动率也已来到近5年的低点，这样的低波动率仅在2019年1月持续了8天。- F; \( l& R4 p6 j6 m: N
历史经验告诉我们，比特币的波动性减弱往往意味着即将出现较大幅度的波动，因此当前的低波动期或许很快将
" l4 ~2 y* k, t, S; K% J结束。K33高级分析师Vetle Lunde对此表示：我的短期观点是，市场的波动压力即将到达顶峰，爆发即将到来。
' n m s6 M& o3 F; k, [" h% TSEC对比特币现货ETF的回应将在短期造成比特币大幅波动+ u6 E1 i1 P; ]4 p, _5 p" h* h$ z
同时Lunde认为比特币的波动需要大型事件作为催化剂，在他看来，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对Ark21Shares、
) _2 z6 F0 j/ G K) B8 j1 H) j贝莱德和其他公司提交的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)文件的回应，可能在未来几周或几个月内造成比特币波动。' q% L/ j4 X3 z
但Lunde并未对此作出积极判断，而是认为所有申请都将会被驳回并延期：我预计所有正在进行的申请都将被推% X/ w! a* }7 ?0 H& \+ D H
迟，至少要等到Grayscale与SEC的诉讼得出结果。但我预计这些事件对市场波动的影响不会那么大。尽管如此，
6 D2 t* \2 [( ?0 N/ p我还是倾向于持有大量比特币，并在整个夏天更积极地增持比特币，以防判决早于预期。
^9 W/ ^4 D/ a: { N( q x) {K33看好2024年加密货币市场
9 i- e1 A' G' e, c1 b5 m7 X此外，Lunde也对近期发生骇客事件的稳定币流动性协议Curve Finance作出评价，认为当前该协议面临的清算风! @6 W D0 {- y* d# A) m1 Z
险将对市场造成难以预测的负面影响：这些清算可能会对市场产生巨大的负面效应，推高波动性，这些事件很难8 I# u E- j! D8 v5 r% R
提前预测。* c: g* X3 z! n
但总体而言，Lunde仍然对加密货币在2024年的表现表示看好，无论是在比特币减半之前还是之后，以及比特币+ j5 d2 s8 S- H2 }7 O5 P, S
现货ETF的走向如何。
& I0 D6 N8 B9 i0 ]( _ i9 ?
$ q c, G- Z+ O) ]) h/ D/ c' D6 Y- \! }) Y, F0 L
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