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小分3种情况:
+ \. j6 ?. s& N& Y, g1 [4 H+ S& A
" z+ N2 e8 @# a8 ^( |+ `1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。0 T S# H% j6 a- T7 s( i9 I2 P& r
& O- `# Y' D4 R2 T/ Q6 U9 H2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
. \; |4 t/ z) s) s' R0 w9 B" \
9 V' m: r) v% p3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
0 W! n- Y! A; |9 L( N% Q- g/ f: | j) r S& I! n v* [2 L% ~
2张牌8或9点的情况有:- ?0 @( m! \5 h5 _% _# W3 c& L2 d
$ _& }" d% T" @8 H+ n
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
0 X# o4 p) e& z' U% h, j
e }3 [& ~0 x7 ]1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
9 o2 F( q# S n9 _$ x5 R( U I( @& l! p
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415 [/ G& l) ~/ o/ V( p
# h3 C8 E, j6 E, s1 n6 J
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
! @- o! K2 U5 r3 g0 Y. \4 B" ~; N" r# s
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
: h q- G0 Z% S
/ H6 u5 a) |& e$ j$ L通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。, e4 o/ n8 G$ o# ]7 b* f9 Z
- e8 J* I' Z7 b, b P# |那么我们可以得出+ `3 R$ ]( H3 x$ V5 t0 o
6 n1 E1 n5 {0 c' B% f" r7 w
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
5 K3 ~5 H. J# |! [2 N& ^4 ]( S
& ~2 I6 G- E- [( T! X. E2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 7 u; z$ u* t+ `$ u, w% f
3 Y( _( F' \1 B; c
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
- s4 Q3 J1 V1 f k2 H) T* v" N/ k$ d0 V {7 O
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323, o$ A& r) n. F/ \' A9 ^
+ v- B* y4 a6 T# v5 C8 K, e
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677) P& b* n# V6 _
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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