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小分3种情况:
- n( C4 B1 N. z. `" U$ d1 n9 P* U) v" p* Y( S" O0 ]
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
4 X# ~/ a0 l' E& ~
: _, d8 l& \1 {3 u, ?1 r7 J' @$ y2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。7 @* B: {5 p2 ]# x
9 N, |9 z& {2 U4 [1 q: G" _3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
3 [" j8 P' k, j& o0 L: G- g
' r% p3 p! q7 L: ]8 ^4 C2张牌8或9点的情况有:
+ [) H3 k2 X" {( c' f" a q t
+ E8 C$ |$ t! C2 e; a6 c1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
( C( \6 e8 U' E& i% c ]5 s
- H- S/ _* z6 O& `1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415! E, M- ~, }" ?( k, L& a
, d6 b$ K" D v8 S4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415) ?& ^; @+ P- W' f- U* y9 F+ b
+ f! q) K+ E; r8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
' _7 u$ c9 }. `# D. {+ U- ^1 u6 N& b) K/ @1 [
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
/ K* n0 _" ^$ O( y2 @7 L5 Y+ H1 [/ v- ^/ P2 }5 z1 ?
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
2 C0 r. Y& H- S& n; a+ f- J
6 a& X7 q7 W2 o9 B那么我们可以得出
5 d( T/ }" M$ V8 e
" C2 z2 r) }8 J# \ s* x3 W1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662( l* B! {% u# M# b9 Y
# n4 a/ @2 }3 n; Y& i3 B- |
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 Y: C5 o% k k z( [ Q9 x" r
! R! f; {$ l( ^4 T/ ^
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854917 e' F: }6 k$ `: o- j: o+ @( B
) I. I7 `) `% D
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323$ a' e) y7 P! @$ j: G
9 c% ? F; k- E( `. ]0 O! W- ^0 N$ q5 {
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
9 ~% g# k- I; m* k8 U- Y$ H |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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