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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 % q0 z: i8 |3 q, w/ N8 A# h4 [" P! L7 V7 Y
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因.
0 W. I* n) Y2 x- v" v6 @7 ~$ f此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 , _0 U% w. ]5 [% ]& i! O
以太坊基金集体亏损
/ i. |7 }0 Z5 p: J1 Z0 Y根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
" X9 w7 z9 U( w与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 3 J5 B1 c4 F3 k Z4 f P, b: p6 m
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
6 F1 b8 ]% G9 \1 X5 J4 X
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编辑切换为居中 2 y8 I& J1 w0 w' P3 E6 {# V
流入/流出加密资金(按资产) 6 F) T) n @: ~ X/ P( E: M
这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 # ]% F" i! X2 Z
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
' [; B. e& y) Y: p; A+ @4 D( |: h
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编辑切换为居中
9 q' Z" H. \ |" Z* ], B4 }1 \0 w6月5日的TVL以太坊
. i+ O0 ~. p i1 t' r) h但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
9 r, s: R& J) a9 }6 l/ z宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
- f% U0 I, F8 v- M- V( I' O/ a: j男性讲述金融时报:
% Z6 I; p f! }0 a“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
6 X: V; p) o1 k/ g- F ^8 K呆滞的技术面 9 U/ D$ [) n; ]1 S; n, f2 M# y
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。 V, u) ^/ K, \; ]
具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 - e5 c4 U. j* \3 s2 o9 \3 g/ K
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
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编辑切换为居中 / S. E H5 A. j- ^
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 " J) Z% E: `. ?
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 + {3 d8 E; a: Y E
交易所的ETH储备正在增加
, p' Z# ~/ U' r5 w% }; h6 sCryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
/ K0 v1 C% V3 _& f% v- D自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。
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编辑切换为居中 9 X+ c" W: F7 p2 y6 l* m! |
以太坊外汇储备 1 C8 {" F g: G7 q( d* R @. M
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
* a1 `5 a9 a) Y/ @9 ?3 P来源：金色财经 |
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