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当前离线
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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能) o* ] R. H/ L7 H5 A' h D
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成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。6 |) f4 r% J1 g- E
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例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀: ?4 Q( f# m! N/ S! V3 [
/ P2 ^ z: F. V- Z6 N（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
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尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
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! a& d2 B2 Q ^* i! {关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的
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* W* b9 H; y- G% J l" D `政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀
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压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。$ U+ W, t$ S( W h* P1 v
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此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。1 U( k8 }$ z. \5 [7 D
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今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产
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' Y/ F# i, z, n对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战# k+ z$ J4 }9 L. `2 v# k
9 d) W {" b! b+ g略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来1 {2 J/ _3 U" n. M R5 P: ^
. v, C- U3 e- I) B8 B* [看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。
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