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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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+ i, _( S+ S4 l' h! F5 a% K. I 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续" p& B* @# ^7 V8 |
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。+ C8 B3 R: W, I
/ u) ^* s' S: P3 F, D 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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+ {# h6 H' m* M; j1 Q# }. b 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，( r: h/ f" a" t4 N
8 x! `! s5 j4 t: J' g6 j7 B, N价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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: C, E! I7 w, R- ~+ x/ L: \2 o$ ^, H “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间: n1 L* k/ ?% ]: w
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”0 ^8 b& Z( e* C+ @" S2 r
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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- u& x3 q; M' L- k3 d9 P! E: T2 X “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在: w9 b, M' H3 t& o# A$ P
, f" d* \% C7 q! ]0 ]* d! w积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”8 ~/ E( B% s) q, e5 |2 j
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1 S( A8 e, A. _7 L5 t$ `6 V( j; W 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。) m7 G( X# D6 L8 a8 R
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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! p& K2 d; f* B9 X 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势% G0 N- b' K' n* @4 M1 X
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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9 w9 F+ v6 W; H+ P; n7 F8 B 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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; f" }1 L; n1 n2 U' a市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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