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[虚拟币交流]
比特币可能在未来两天内开始反弹至15万美元：分析（转）
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分析师Ali Martinez认为，比特币可能会在未来两天内开始反弹至15万美元，然后出现大幅回调。
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4 r8 a5 t2 v' s8 y/ x' j比特币与前几周的剧烈波动不同，过去几天一直处于持有模式，没有出现重大价格变动。. H( f+ b! f" U- Y+ N [' X
' E9 h' r3 ?6 y) w6 }自11月13日比特币达到93500美元的峰值以来，它一直在努力走高。虽然它经历了温和的调整，跌至86682美元，但此后反弹至92600美元。4 K! j8 W( v7 F! j9 D# y
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在过去的六天里，比特币在8.9万美元至9.1万美元之间波动，价格没有重大变化。在这个被动市场中，参与者既谨慎又兴奋，预计会出现大幅下跌或大幅上涨。& z5 [. p3 F7 ~" W! }8 y4 p
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与此同时，像Ali Martinez这样的分析师正在研究历史趋势，以预测比特币的下一个可能走势。
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历史表明，比特币在大幅调整前可能达到13.8万美元2 i: r! o* w3 k. {' K* {: m
在A更新今天早些时候，Martinez指出，在2016/2017牛市期间，比特币价格飙升了156%，超过了首次大幅调整前的历史最高点，首次大幅调整使其价值蒸发了39% ；
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同样，他指出，在2020/2021年的周期中，比特币的价值增长了121%，然后经历了32%的回调，抹去了其中的一些涨幅。基于这些观察，他认为比特币在面临首次大幅回调之前可能会达到至少13.8万美元 ；
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比特币牛市可能在两天内爆发，目标价为15万美元
0 b. m9 A* L1 R7 _& B0 C与此同时，在后续帖子中，马丁内斯强调比特币正在密切镜像前两个牛市周期的模式。1 s) y: U' `7 V ?4 ^9 N
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他之前曾指出，在比特币上个季度夺回19700美元的峰值后，它飙升了26%，然后巩固了一周。整合之后，价格大幅上涨至40000美元。
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值得注意的是，在目前的情况下，比特币已经比3月份的峰值73750美元飙升了26.7%，并且自达到93500美元的新峰值以来，在过去的六天里一直在巩固。8 C/ P. ?7 n# p+ S# s: @7 T
/ f, q0 C$ m" k因此，马丁内斯相信如果历史可以作为参考的话，市场可能会在未来一两天内再次突破，目标价约为15万美元。- C1 \; B+ a# i9 r% R9 y
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牛市后调整期间的潜在价格目标
0 ^9 ]) l6 J' ^; q( }. o值得注意的是，15万美元的目标与比特币的历史趋势相一致，在经历约30%的大幅调整之前，比特币在超过以往的历史高点后通常会上涨100%或更多 ；& q& X& O# \- N, q* I) B7 T
2 {1 N z* C3 U3 B W1 \如果这种情况发生，如果比特币首次声称15万美元目标如果峰值接近13.8万美元，则达到9.6万美元。8 `! [1 H. k3 z* r- ~; z5 C
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与此同时，Martinez强调了8.3万至8.5万美元和7.2万至7.5万美元的价格区间，作为市场从看涨转为看跌的潜在支撑区域。* h0 X2 \1 @5 k# G
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