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[lastpost] => 2805541 比特币现金——分析为何跌破 500 美元可能对买家有利(转) 1770775412 22301
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。2 U, N- g0 A5 f8 D- Y; _
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。5 _; S1 H8 W" f. N% R2 S3 e
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自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。/ J1 u# T; L* _( ] z0 q* y
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。, q- E3 n+ S6 _# `( g
8 s8 P$ v+ e1 G, r2 Z+ A2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。" D: a L* J4 J+ ?
[5 ~# G: C+ m9 y9 T" T o- ~那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
) n; I! W) \8 d6 Q! [/ s' E- d1 {2 S7 z. W4 P1 S' c2 ^5 K: x
观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
; L! z5 B( ]% j; V' q$ v分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
, B5 a7 m6 E8 x) B& J% v4 ~# H+ q
/ ]# O( J4 G( p上周降至1300 BTC。" s( k% N. @+ w2 {9 s/ u3 |- k
$ \$ H' Z1 Q1 d- W X( u1 l N- N/ o从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
4 r; `: H: u; J) q t
& D0 G- s5 A9 j% z鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
( _8 G1 m& B2 ?8 C6 H& S& `8 E* z4 X+ o6 O
鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
4 [6 H$ ~' r8 a6 e. F+ @6 T% _. Z/ R
Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。 ^% j( g, O7 y3 s; a
% T X+ k# {. R% M, i, U尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
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比特币会突破其区间吗?
# u. b- v4 b; T- U随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
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根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
' p% g& F: ]7 M& H5 M1 A6 K) v# r% s- ?- V5 t- H$ @: O
因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。& b6 N/ C3 F9 H; ]5 X
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。
4 O* Q/ Q5 V* a
+ l: y* ~7 r9 k6 P" v位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
) B* H4 q6 ]# @$ f- y0 c然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。4 h2 {; o0 |" Z2 m
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根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。6 y/ l/ R) x6 h: A" @( y# |% I: O8 R
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