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[lastpost] => 2770519 比特币 2026 年的价格催化剂：宏观顺风和机构支持将推动下一轮牛市（转） 1759317533 人生如赌
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随着价格的整合，比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而，交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。 _! O. |! _3 }2 B ]) |5 N
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来，比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。+ q5 K; h6 M7 m8 h k2 Z
S P6 P' C7 R n L4 [: [自8月8日以来，价格没有跌破或超过这一区间，这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。; m8 D/ m( _" j
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软，根据CryptoQuant的数据，比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周，这甚至变成了负面的。
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5 N/ |: n0 L' l" X& |5 m8 [( W! ~2024年4月，比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值，恰逢比特币减半事件。然而，自那以后，它已降至今年的最低水平。
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" G6 o G2 e `- D3 B那么，为什么比特币的需求会下降呢？/ S0 | n1 n, B. c
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观察ETF和鲸鱼活动2 r( R! W" k/ w2 _
分析指出，流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月，随着BTC飙升至历史高点，比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。- `+ C1 W! Y* \9 K. [; O
9 T) g" |! r8 `8 v上周降至1300 BTC。9 G j. y/ T9 q3 [% {
$ e6 n) B- ~1 W! l7 _- S从SoSoValue上可以看出，自8月9日以来，流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产，但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
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鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。, \. S G5 m& c
* Z' |& P7 T8 s鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。( L* k1 \1 L* n! r5 g/ k
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Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少，该数据显示，自3月以来，持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。; E3 n9 I9 L6 F
. [0 I0 a0 H- e; d尽管鲸鱼活动放缓，但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
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比特币会突破其区间吗？
3 p* N, H! A1 F; m/ e9 {随着对比特币需求的放缓，人们不禁要问，比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。. S8 O7 j' N7 H) B+ a% [9 M
. E8 e1 }9 E' h; p& G/ I" d* ]
根据IntoTheBlock的数据，超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
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& x( h. {) R0 o: c, _; u( a+ G因此，突破62000美元将面临抛售压力，因为他们急于获利。6 K! p0 y8 ^6 F' S+ J# W
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数（RSI）也保持区间震荡，购买势头没有显著飙升。; t0 E1 v) }% F+ F/ f4 p
9 ~4 @2 `' u* `0 ?& v1 M位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而，短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。2 T2 t. B& i% x7 R2 M& w- h, O
然而，由于交易所比特币供应量下降，短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。% P/ d$ U4 f8 V5 j
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根据CryptoQuant的数据，交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此，尽管需求明显较低，但外汇供应也较低，从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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