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小分3种情况:
8 U4 k: Q) C) x0 E) x. d6 I7 w \' n; Y5 s, B, E( [7 g8 b u4 I7 {9 W
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。# v1 Z7 {1 u$ u5 _4 m* p5 t. g0 b
& F4 ~9 s# _& c t2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
; S' m0 I- f( s* a
# W/ ?! P: Q- r( q3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。3 }! _, P; q4 M+ z9 W3 s
& P9 t4 O7 o8 x
2张牌8或9点的情况有:0 f( ?* a, p: t
- i$ \ a3 ?8 `1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10- X- g' ~& D/ d( y$ q
0 c/ C/ H/ |5 c# R5 B1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
I1 h) T# s; I1 H( O+ |* L3 s7 _: O$ V/ `( E* |$ Z) b
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
& ^! W. K: |7 F7 l
% r: @+ _) M1 H" f; @. B8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
& x& _: E3 H+ w. i
3 y7 K- Z3 o% B# O由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。/ F$ H$ P7 s. x7 n% ?
' R5 Q3 n \7 Q. W$ F) A: h6 M通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。( E% j# e( k/ P- V# Y' G4 l& _7 P1 t
1 X+ K5 F' K5 D( s [$ e那么我们可以得出
u% G) o: m, S/ L
8 @$ y: c2 \- _4 A# j& `. G1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.1894346626 ~ I8 R& `/ D$ u3 [3 @
: N8 U2 _/ p/ m( c5 C$ K- N2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
5 U" y7 B& O% q3 S9 o- ^6 r$ o' ]% ~- {( x; R+ @" Y
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
. k! Q5 P8 A5 E7 A
+ i9 }8 Q: c1 Y5 D所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
. h! H5 ^. z) b+ _1 ]6 Z& y) D% j& J/ i) j7 }4 f
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
% z- W) q! ^+ J) M' ?: R |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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