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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?4 a9 m" s" ?5 V! b( u) ?
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会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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3 L; D i! Q+ y* ]+ W请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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6 d5 C, |( d* s答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产! x1 F6 s0 z% h# r; i
9 ^* ]3 U9 `- S( v% b% Y( H/ U例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
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4 }, A5 n5 U: a2 `现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?6 k9 I. U% _' n1 V ^/ V; J# ]
, m9 r0 ?- m! N/ S; p我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!- D6 N( L. I, H" C" n9 Q' ^# T
# r9 ] f- G! X8 R: H玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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* h) Y, A+ k- l这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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" u8 z: x# I3 `! R' I/ O! l玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。6 b1 W3 j0 L+ T# s: S+ m
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。. v7 z% }# R( q
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。5 V/ b) l) T* m3 ^) i6 o. b
2 {4 ]( S- {& ]1 E; l下注比例 本金结果
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- `; }5 l* `5 K$ @1 B5 t0.1% 1.001902
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0.2% 1.003606
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0.3% 1.005113" z* |' i4 q5 t) d9 G$ s" F8 l: H7 E+ e
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0.4% 1.0064218 L9 D! I0 c4 |. c' k
: T; }) ?! E8 \/ U1 r5 Q0.5% 1.007528- `3 G4 b: x, J6 U
9 Z) A6 q3 N( s, z0.6% 1.008435
8 `' |& w: m4 E* \; l; i0 L: _/ k4 o0 i0 a5 |! b5 \2 a) \" A
0.7% 1.0091426 g* b/ c( O& V% p
0 K5 \5 u4 ~: j6 G0.8% 1.009646% v* R: ?( Z3 G0 r: `& i9 t
9 D% Y. e0 S# G' ^1 |% y
0.9% 1.009949. D& Y/ v8 P a8 r% F5 l$ n) E
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1.0% 1.01005
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1.1% 1.009949
" x3 ^" ^; _8 W8 Y! s6 @% ^, v5 M
2 k# g1 E, f$ x1 {1.2% 1.009646& u3 s- o. t' \2 `& X; i i
- |" n0 K( I! S% b3 x8 t" u1.3% 1.009142
4 E) K5 N* \" }# Z1 C% e; F
, C, `6 f b% Z/ {- E1.4% 1.008435- v8 d3 _7 F& Q6 e
9 V, y6 {8 u0 B2 U, h1 a
1.5% 1.007528
. T% J- R) g/ W! J
1 n. _/ L- s; }2 \% A+ z1.6% 1.00642
4 F: j+ B$ ~+ K4 x( R% S9 M9 Q1 ~& J+ [* `0 l# k3 T% {
1.7% 1.005112" O1 l1 d+ A7 \1 }5 m2 Z- H; e5 h6 d
; Q& n8 h( z B$ R; h. d: y' \1.8% 1.003605
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8 e, R! X% q$ g$ u% Y: s( k1 I1.9% 1.0019; v: M( [, _ w! E
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2.0% 0.999997
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2.1% 0.997899
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2.2% 0.995605- n0 f+ Q' F; f$ y$ L+ Z
6 I% }- \$ X& }, Q' Z
2.3% 0.993118
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7 K& z9 O( ]" @: i2.4% 0.990439
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2 V- F; g0 ]" f2.5% 0.987569 z; d; N3 r( c e) I/ E; D
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2.6% 0.98451
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5 X$ U/ m* z2 R2.7% 0.981264
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: Y! N, T3 z4 q1 `2.8% 0.977833
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2.9% 0.974219( g6 r1 z6 M0 o. K
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3.0% 0.970424( J( a0 x0 h, [
3 [8 x8 g& b8 u0 d: n# Q从上表可以得到一些结论:
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利* F, r. u% [3 Z
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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7 ~# I! I' Y0 _) p3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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9 f* ^ y- B3 v; m凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%... T8 u/ O* d, S4 W2 N# @
' T W9 _& r4 {/ y然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。 l& X- R5 ?2 O" h
/ j( d0 T7 `5 r# q5 ?! w( l) x以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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