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[虚拟币交流]
比特币走势预测：交易员称BTC主导地位临界点将至 山寨币即将起飞？-转
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比特币（BTC）延续强劲多头走势，近日突破107,000美元大关，短短两天内劲涨超5%，重拾上行动能。此次涨势的主因在于比特币主导率升至 65.3%，显示在宏观经济不确定性加剧与机构资金持续流入的背景下，市场资金正大举回流BTC主线。 同时，加密市场总市值来到 2.13兆美元，进一步反映资金面整体转强，而此时正值交易员关注美联储主席鲍威尔国会听证会的最后一轮发言，市场氛围更显敏感。 4 o$ ]+ a: D1 O4 j! q
技术面讯号进一步确认此次突破走势。BTC 已成功突破多周下降趋势线，目前稳稳站上 50日指数移动均线（EMA）104,513 美元，以及前压力位 106,135 美元，转为短期支撑。 动能方面亦表现强劲，MACD 出现黄金交叉，并伴随 101,400 美元上方形成的多头吞噬形态，为后续上攻奠定基础。若成功突破关键压力 108,738 美元，将有望开启新一轮上行波段。 若BTC成功突破上述关键区间，价格有望冲刺至 110,486 美元 甚至 112,081 美元，整体走势偏多，进一步强化比特币的看涨预期。
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3 W- {" j' D& M0 x% v8 A: r. b山寨轮动：只是时间问题？- V$ W& K2 c8 o1 |2 w9 A* L
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该关键门坎或许即将到来。 - 目前 BTC 主导率为 65.3%
- 过往周期高点约为 71%
- 山寨币爆发窗口：预估落在未来 1–3 周内4 `# U" I1 `# `6 K' G: H, p$ f. M+ E
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市场交易员普遍推测：若比特币高位盘整不破，资金很可能开始向被低估的山寨币轮动。
9 M- K6 J' h. ^. m* l 尽管短线可能出现震荡修正，但市场情绪已开始酝酿一波潜在的 山寨季，时点可能落在 7月中旬左右。随着比特币主导率逼近历史周期高位，市场分析师正密切关注资金是否将开始流向山寨币板块。根据 Rekt Capital 的观察，BTC主导率往往在 67% 至 71% 之间触顶，随后资金通常会转向山寨，引爆一波全面性的「Altcoin Season」。
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