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小分3种情况:4 q+ Q4 H$ ~4 D8 N+ L- B; d
+ n& B- F8 o. [: r% v5 n4 x1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
4 f6 S a: b* r2 o5 Y
0 E) w: c' x" p2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
5 d$ W& r0 H* v$ L6 X* g0 w. {1 v$ M) G" j( L5 c1 o0 E
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。( ?% }3 j2 a) ^
4 g7 @+ O& R- ^7 P
2张牌8或9点的情况有:. r% k! y' S5 J- i Q# Q
: R2 X" C* n, `5 q: m7 e3 C4 A1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
' }3 S. G7 }4 ]7 P" J/ l/ P* x. b4 Q2 m8 B. Y" l& v
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
. e# l$ \5 o; D# Q1 Q8 x; U( G6 q$ Q, J$ C" p1 N) G6 v! u
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415% N; A3 S1 \( c2 n0 M3 {0 t. o3 P, P
' J2 o3 P' Z9 e4 a- e, G
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415* Z4 P1 y: ^2 s# k! t% ]
* Y6 w6 a3 z; H3 V由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
) B# a, I# e& s6 ], v) ^6 J5 n( ~7 T
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
3 `- v9 O0 k8 u+ \1 Z, j, A% |0 K/ u9 ~, p. ?3 c
那么我们可以得出
7 \- G$ b- n+ L1 U- O$ ?" C% s' p' S" @. e0 C" a
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
9 v! w) _- V4 S, o. [! G# l" q* Y ^1 y+ v. ], S7 q3 o
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
6 X$ v1 r, s5 J, E- l1 h
7 m& w L! m" T; w# ^: x/ h3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491' a. t8 z) Q, L7 ~
7 D3 T( v' f9 S所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.3788693234 R5 H3 H6 C' Z! a, w2 E; z
' E$ u B8 `5 ?8 w3 F8 q百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
* R P7 W7 y, c3 ? |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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