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[lastpost] => 2760270 比特币 120 亿美元期权到期会影响 9 月份的价格走势吗？（转） 1756256610 万家灯火
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币 120 亿美元期权到期会影响 9 月份的价格走势吗？（转）
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关键要点
: L8 w4 O2 B* H0 o/ b1 o& b a周五期权到期及宏观数据公布前，BTC交易员持谨慎态度。但QCP资本近期仍保持看涨立场。
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在价值近 120 亿美元的比特币[BTC]期权将于 8 月 29 日到期。
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2 Z5 v5 h- o5 Z在其最新市场更新期权交易平台 Deribit 指出，头寸在 11 万至 11.5 万美元附近“看跌”，这表明参与者正在积极对冲任何额外的下行风险。
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( J0 W7 [. F: o5 Y6 V4 U" vBTC 到期表明市场对下行保护的需求持续存在，而 ETH 则显得较为中性。结合鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上发出的信号，此次到期可能有助于确定 9 月份的市场基调。
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5 `: _ ]- ^* a% l9 \; B截至发稿时，看跌/看涨比率为 0.88，低于 1，这表明尽管短期内谨慎，但看涨期权（看涨押注）仍占主导地位。
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- x& S. D8 {4 A, u值得注意的是，最大痛苦水平（大多数期权到期作废，卖方受益）为 11.6 万美元。在某些情况下，该水平起到了价格磁吸的作用。1 q! F9 W C# z$ D
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多头会捍卫 11 万美元吗？. r i y" L7 a% t
低于 110,000 美元时，玩家会对冲至 106,000 美元和 108,000 美元的金额。; Q6 V; Z) I; Q' B7 z5 j6 j
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到 8 月 26 日，BTC 盘中一度触及 108.6 万美元，证实了交易员的对冲行为。
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有趣的是，8 月 26 日，在一次大型鲸鱼攻击之后，10.8 万美元的损失在几个小时后就被击中。倾倒他的比特币持有量以太坊[ETH].2 M# @3 X6 U* b5 {. j
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回调是否会跌破 10.8 万美元至 10.6 万美元甚至 10 万美元？
/ @9 F3 U. z( g7 X; e( H- e! Q: ~Glassnode 认为，此举将在短期内削弱看涨的市场结构。分析公司著名的110.8 万美元是 5 月至 7 月期间持有该资产的持有者（1-3 个月的持有者）的平均成本基础。- Q# k. g* }+ n+ p" \& k
h5 x2 q+ I( G" Z, gGlassnode 补充道，从历史上看，该水平一直发挥着关键支撑作用，但当其转变为阻力位时，可能预示着短期内将出现持续疲软。* X, @; Q+ O1 {$ `+ R+ ?" q
& W& d) E/ Q# k. H0 T0 q9 u. G" {事实上，在第一季度疲软期间，BTC 跌破了该群体的成本基础，并且价格一直维持到 4 月底。8 g* U( a# i4 s
! ^% }. a9 ^( n换句话说，110,000 美元是周五期权到期前的关键技术和链上支撑。
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& x( r' a3 i2 G" P8 @' ~宏观测试即将开始; W6 K" U( v t1 c2 E( J
受关键因素推动，本周市场波动性可能加剧宏观数据发布。8 q+ }* w$ P3 n1 Y, v4 B3 C
1 N* v, ?2 v6 j0 D! M失业救济申请将于 8 月 28 日公布，核心 PCE 通胀数据将于 8 月 29 日公布，这两项数据都可能对投资者情绪和价格走势产生重大影响。& ]% {1 `* `8 e Y
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事实上，由于美联储 9 月份可能降息，本周可能会决定步伐了解第三季度末的价格走向。
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对于加密货币交易部门来说，QCP Capital尽管市场情绪看跌，但短期内 BTC 仍看涨。; F" b7 T, ]: I9 K2 P
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短期来看，BTC 的上涨势头似乎正在向 ETH 让路，但我们对 BTC 的结构性观点保持不变。与 7 月份市场吸收了约 8 万枚 BTC 的传统供应量一样，我们预计机构投资者会选择性逢低买入。) k) @1 I2 c( b# |6 y! {/ b6 q# V3 w
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