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[lastpost] => 2756091 为什么你最大的错误可能是过早出售 XRP?(转) 1755655776 22301
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
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策小分:
总在线: 7216 小时
本月在线: 15 小时
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你知道吗? Coinbase Custody(而非贝莱德)持有 IBIT 中 BTC 的私钥,将客户资产安全地离线存储,并由商业保险提供支持。
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2.为什么贝莱德在 2025 年大举押注比特币?6 Y4 T( I6 N6 j/ ~8 G
贝莱德的大规模配置背后,是其战略视角的转变:它已将比特币视为长期、多元化投资组合中的合法组成部分。3 I) D( {7 M3 H. \0 y7 F
1 Y4 d; @1 ~7 b9 Z9 [$ B3 w7 c贝莱德的比特币战略
7 R4 P3 r! P$ ]" p: R$ Q贝莱德的内部论点是:接受比特币的波动性,换取其潜在的上行空间。通过 IBIT(iShares Bitcoin Trust),他们押注更广泛的采用将逐步稳定这一资产,改善价格发现、提升流动性并缩小买卖价差。( U U, L. C% V: Q% }5 v
" M0 W$ d6 Y/ A9 o2 y$ @在他们看来,比特币是对货币演化与数字资产基础设施的长期押注。这种来自全球最大资产管理公司的理念,向同行释放了强烈信号。它将机构对比特币的讨论从“是否要参与”转变为“应该配置多少”。
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( m& s% f, [. r3 _机构积累比特币的投资逻辑) s! N2 k$ r3 {# d7 u) {
贝莱德在 2025 年看好比特币的几个关键因素:
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4 B5 M, _: p- G3 L4 E稀缺性设计:比特币总量上限 2100 万枚,且通过减半机制控制增发,稀缺性与黄金相似,但背靠数字架构。部分估计显示,大量现有比特币已遗失或无法取用,使得实际可流通供应更为紧张。
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美元霸权的替代品:在主权债务膨胀与地缘ZZ碎片化的背景下,比特币的去中心化特性提供了对法币风险的对冲。它被定位为一种中立的储备资产,抵御ZF过度干预与货币操纵。/ f7 b4 A0 ?2 z z9 [3 c/ r
5 {# a0 U/ D9 H: x5 D数字化转型的一部分:贝莱德将比特币视为宏观趋势的代理指标——从“线下”到“线上”价值体系的转变,涵盖金融、商业乃至财富代际转移。他们认为这一趋势受到人口结构的“超级驱动”,尤其是年轻投资者影响力的上升。2 W ~: }. w5 V3 R9 m2 M$ |
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这些因素组合起来,使比特币拥有传统资产类别无法复制的风险收益特征。贝莱德的表述是:比特币提供“额外的多元化来源”,为其进入主流投资组合提供了有力论据。' @/ N# I( `( p$ [ ]% D' F
: c9 F- Q+ W3 Z( n1 x+ [贝莱德的加密投资组合整合7 Y& E! Q7 z/ O& ~ |( ^
贝莱德主张采取审慎策略:在传统 60/40 股债组合中配置 1%~2% 的比特币。听起来比例不大,但对机构级投资组合而言,足以产生影响,并让保守的资金分配者逐渐接受比特币。
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+ X' v8 \6 _! _2 m9 Q% r. r& ]他们还将比特币的风险画像与高波动科技股(如“七巨头”)作比较,以展示其在标准投资模型中的合理位置。+ [- ]+ L5 k( k# B8 E, ?1 t5 r( N+ w
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有趣的是,IBIT 内部比特币交易过程中产生的意外副产品(“尘埃”)里,包含了少量其他代币。贝莱德通常会将这些代币单独存放,或捐赠给慈善机构,以避免税务复杂性。( S2 Y' [0 ^9 |# d+ N$ F
7 f/ ?# S" C+ f# p3 P2 K* U3.比特币 ETF 的市场影响' {/ t) T" E7 g6 I: h0 R
贝莱德通过 IBIT 持有超过 3% 的比特币总供应量,这成为比特币在认知、交易与监管层面上的转折点。: J: c' g! [3 G
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比特币历来因波动性著称,这源于固定供应、情绪波动和监管不确定性。过去,因市场流动性较薄,大额交易往往造成剧烈冲击。而随着 IBIT 吸收数十万枚 BTC,问题在于机构资本究竟会稳定市场,还是会进一步加剧市场复杂化。
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ETF 模式的支持者认为,机构投资有助于降低波动性。像贝莱德这样的受监管机构参与后,比特币将变得更具流动性、更透明、更能抵御异常波动。2 ]! e2 ~- }5 t3 a
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贝莱德也明确表示,更广泛的参与能改善价格发现、加深市场流动性,并最终促成更稳定的交易环境。
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但批评者(包括部分学者)警告,大规模机构参与会将传统市场风险带入比特币:如杠杆交易、算法触发的闪崩,以及通过 ETF 流量进行的价格操控。
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6 U! e5 ?. v3 T$ Q+ s换句话说,比特币的金融化可能是用另一种波动(系统性、杠杆驱动风险)替代了原本的散户驱动 FOMO。而且,随着 ETF 影响力增加,比特币可能与其他金融资产的相关性增强,削弱其“非相关性对冲”的价值。' ~9 _6 X9 m& Q3 ]
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13270 小时
本月在线: 57 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19156 小时
本月在线: 77 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 18149 小时
本月在线: 27 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 101 小时
本月在线: 12 小时
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贝莱德这下是真敢下注,看来对比特币的信心不是闹着玩的。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 10208 小时
本月在线: 34 小时
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