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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与 3 万亿美元美国债务——现在是购买 BTC 的时候了吗？（转）
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雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 警告称，美国债务可能会使与美元挂钩的财富贬值。
8 _5 @5 U! X0 _* U加密货币领导者将财政混乱视为 BTC 的看涨催化剂。
# z" E2 p I% r比特币[BTC]随着 7 月 3 日税收和支出法案通过后美国债务问题成为头条新闻，加密货币推特上出现了大量看涨言论。
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根据 估计，预计该法案将在未来10年内增加3万多亿美元。1 H5 \. }6 O; j! {5 U1 z& T3 W
9 }9 E7 w5 z" C; I9 W但是，对冲基金桥水基金创始人雷·达利奥著名的 如果该法案按原样实施，债务可能会失控。
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" e/ H& A2 w) B& z他警告说，未来10年内，普通美国家庭的债务负担可能变得难以承受。
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# p9 b8 q5 o! Y- i可能的后果是什么？增税、削减ZF支出或增加印钞。这可能会削弱美元的价值，并损害那些依赖美元来保住财富的人。
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7 O/ W! u Q9 ^; K6 S4 |$ ^- g他表示，
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* ]( @1 k! d( ` k( S; z“这种印钞和贬值行为对于那些将债券作为财富储备的人来说并不好，而对债券和美国信贷市场不利的事情对每个人来说都是不利的。”
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2 M; \! e$ `+ l* v0 _ bBTC 的完美风暴？
. F- N1 L# [9 q$ Y加密货币领袖声称，这种可能的财政混乱和后果正是比特币存在的原因。$ B1 b L1 A; q6 e, ~+ f1 G7 V
8 ~! ?" e" U4 J3 y9 X作为一种固定供应的数字资产，与美元等传统货币相比，它成为一种相对较好的价值储存手段。
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& `* V8 y# r* H2 {8 l( H$ p. e+ |这些货币供应量无限，由各国央行随意印制。简而言之，BTC、黄金和其他稀缺商品的需求量将会很大。+ {+ y6 n# Z* t3 z% ~, v
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Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 对 Dalio 的警告作出回应 敦促用户“购买比特币”。0 J g$ N& U. O; l# {
- L5 C4 o/ [: E, v @) dReal Vision 的 Raoul Pal 也赞同 Hougan 的观点，添加在这种贬值情况下，只有技术和加密货币才是更好的对冲工具。) U; \% A- l9 ^$ G8 M& e
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“在长期牛市中，贬值对冲只有两种表现显著优异：科技和加密货币。”- V8 U6 G4 p5 d% ]$ F
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尽管达利欧公开表示承认与拥有一些 BTC 相比，他更倾向于黄金。2 N& r) D& j n; O. L! N
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他表示，追踪黄金价格走势更容易，尤其是在冲突期间。但他发现追踪比特币价格走势却很难，因此得出结论，比特币仍然是一种投机行为。+ M8 I* b9 ^* J! K: M
' q% S! N2 D* Z' X _然而，对贝莱德的拉里·芬克来说，BTC 是数字黄金。事实上，他警告今年 4 月，如果财政债务得不到管理，人民币很容易取代美元成为世界储备货币。
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0 b( r% J1 Z4 x" p6 a3 A, X即便如此，财政部长斯科特·贝森特淡化与支出法案相关的债务问题。
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m- b1 m# k# }/ [5 o8 b“我们的 GDP 增长速度快于债务增长速度，这种趋势将持续到总统剩余的任期。”5 J3 J s& t. L/ x' I' m
% V1 |7 y. ]$ \) q. ]# d( H5 Y与此同时，Coinbase 分析师警告“大美丽法案”将债务上限提高了 5 万亿美元。
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" q! z7 @" o; o$ P+ O; k结果，美国财政部可能会补充（从市场借钱）其主要现金账户或TGA（国库普通账户），并挤压流动性，拖累包括BTC在内的风险资产。) g$ @& c- z' u- Q* U: Z
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“TGA 的补充可能会在短期内消耗大盘的流动性，对所有风险资产构成明显的下行风险。”
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