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[虚拟币交流]
比特币关键指标再次闪烁——BTC 会反弹至新高吗？（转）
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随着比特币徘徊在历史高点附近，积极的购买行为再次出现，但鲸鱼的行为却呈现出分歧。3 O! z6 Q) A. A9 Q. D" s! {. Z( q
RSI 信号超买水平，而 MACD 动量减弱——BTC 需要突破 105,000 美元，否则有回调风险。0 U4 P D/ F1 n- \6 F. q/ u
比特币的[BTC]随着积极的买家涌入市场，市场势头再次增强。
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' f) ~& k, R! b5 f9 x) B% R* k接受者买入/卖出比率已飙升至 1.02，这是自几次历史性突破以来从未见过的水平，表明市场参与者的信心日益增强。
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; ?+ l2 A) e$ S) m% L) ]- Q" c链上数据显示，大型钱包正在加大增持力度，为许多人猜测的可能创下历史新高的最后冲刺做好准备。) T [4 F$ B" ?, k9 m) Y7 u( E) f
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随着市场情绪升温，BTC 价格徘徊在之前的峰值下方，下一轮上涨行情是否即将开始？: q$ I, a) }" M: |: x* E! X- L7 O) [
4 P# e& h1 g( g# Y7 c4 h7 @8 O市场信心[激增]？
! t5 u- |+ E6 [1 s' t) Y" Y根据最近的CryptoQuant 报告，Taker 买入/卖出比率已果断突破 1.00 大关，达到 1.02——这一水平在历史上与比特币价格走势的突破时刻相关。& ?8 ]' D5 N' U/ x
}. P( l+ D# T9 T! l2022 年末，在 15,000 美元至 20,000 美元的积累区附近以及 2023 年 10 月突破 30,000 美元之前也出现了类似的峰值。, R. g6 t0 s: f k; B* R% G
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随着 BTC 目前徘徊在历史高点附近，积极购买的回归表明人们的信心日益增强——但这也提高了风险，因为这个门槛此前曾先于上涨和急剧逆转。
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9 t! l* j# x0 k# H1 L. c b- q超级持有者已暂停
* \& w$ ~" q) ~" m: o尽管总体积累趋势依然看涨，但仔细观察就会发现行为发生了微妙的转变。( M3 |0 F1 S( D- o- t, |; k- f
l; f- R- R$ u. ~# h' q9 L. X根据 Glassnode，持有超过 10,000 BTC 的超大鲸鱼已经冷却了他们的购买活动，回到了 0.5 左右的中性积累分数。) a! y. ~6 D6 x0 o6 g3 N
# X- J! h+ U0 z! n: R. ?: z相比之下，中等规模的群体（持有 1,000 至 10,000 BTC 的钱包）仍然是活跃的买家，得分接近 0.9。; f( `7 |5 d% O# S7 T% l5 m
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即使是规模较小的机构投资者也表现出持续的强劲势头。然而，散户投资者仍在继续分散资金。
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尽管看涨势头持续，但推动涨势的主要是中等规模的投资者，而非资金雄厚的投资者。
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比特币显示出疲软迹象' D M& ^1 K, V8 M
RSI 为 70.68，确认了超买状况，这通常是局部顶部或小幅回调的前兆。; p& W6 @5 Q. ?. Z3 [7 x
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此外，MACD指标仍保持看涨，MACD线位于信号线上方。然而，动能正在趋于平缓，反映出购买压力正在降温。$ G6 Q( W0 t7 v9 V
k6 ]- Q- z9 r1 Q) U# ?' _尽管早些时候出现飙升，但价格仍然维持区间波动，暗示可能出现疲软。6 B) v" @- o. a
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如果 BTC 未能令人信服地突破 105,000 美元，那么在任何持续突破尝试之前，短期回调至 100,000 美元或更低的支撑区域仍然有效。
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