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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
[复制链接]
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。
$ V: n! J- o# |9 F0 _! `Altcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。
9 R1 u/ G. K8 m$ x5 `' n6 N越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。 ]0 ~* K- |- Q& r! h& t# W
你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。
0 S- C3 C) [% }3 F# Q- F! x从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。
_" v: B4 \: |7 W0 S8 K1 m2 G$ calt/btc
6 m F/ ] ~; K* x# h3 r1 |alt/usdt5 Y7 K6 `1 y7 R t1 Q
那么，发生了什么？
# ?/ p$ [( T' p' d& g/ Z0 B1. 大户轮换资金
7 R3 c1 f' h1 v8 D j与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。" J" d( W* l' h, h/ ~) C9 S1 i, q% [
这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。& W U, H5 s9 R8 h# @9 l
但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。0 Z8 C. z3 F7 g) M% u$ Y# J
2. 市场的防御心理
- d- r/ m! b, p" \1 ^投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。" x* ~3 D& `0 I0 G
这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。
% y& I5 g! n4 h& Q3 I3. 需要关注的信号3 s$ S# p% O" y' T
BTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。
1 {: c- l5 h" M5 Z4 i& j) H山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。
6 {. h" X/ \ ^ l% YUSDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。
3 k% h) \" p9 h; s" G4. 对投资者的意义
* }6 B* d3 J1 H! ] p- M! o在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。* `( f, O5 N. e( B1 a: g
如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。
9 v6 c! |' M; S* ~安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。
3 R( V" K' i: L6 A: L: m结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。
7 E0 i) G7 q) ]#加密货币#. l# p/ N" ^* ]" D/ @8 b
% h0 q3 A' f M! V9 a2 H* _ |
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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