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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。
/ w+ _0 ~2 k# s9 I4 D- n自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。" P% j! q7 M; F" t
) W9 a" {' J" }: R$ Q" d1 d自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
( d0 y' p7 f9 e5 H! S% W7 M6 ~" x. M9 I% @7 q6 o
2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
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& Y" N4 N9 P( G b那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?3 k7 k- W' g( ], d
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观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
* p. c5 k ]% F6 o& S分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。( r% g6 j/ H, p' M1 `
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上周降至1300 BTC。
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从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
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) j; F( U# F3 n) C- U+ a鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。; c; S1 A% {1 Y+ V
6 H9 J1 W1 T1 h9 s( Z9 y+ A
鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。% M: e! ^6 D6 {! u9 B) |
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Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
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尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。 e* m! f2 h# x1 x
* A/ [5 ]/ {( L! L' t9 Y比特币会突破其区间吗?$ X6 o" O' ^) g3 ]( F& J
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
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/ R( Z- c* Z. |0 m. n6 n根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。$ O7 x+ f; F/ I5 C" ]3 e+ |
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因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。! r) i H$ _ i' S2 L
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。8 E+ r2 Q4 Z& z0 t B7 z0 O
$ y* w+ z" X4 a: Y( I9 `位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。 U1 V U' C" C, o
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。# j% S. e6 T" ?2 g8 N; d$ R
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根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。( p) \! p3 ? f4 m- q; o
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