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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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8 E# b+ C8 Q! ? ^3 W( P1 I- @+ J 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。: P( @3 G3 B: T. |! b' G3 N
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Y1 d8 p7 N: g+ s: S9 e: | 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续7 ^/ r4 V; a/ T/ V+ |
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。, s7 A$ l% A' q" a# X7 F3 d
* J* d( j/ T- s! q2 n* U* W 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。) f9 x, p- z1 m$ z- Q
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。3 c7 B( w9 v7 D! P6 j2 c. y
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- H6 y, f, _& k& g0 r 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。3 q5 _+ ~) X/ I: k" E
3 _& S- t* b5 M# q: Q 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，% q; j! G: E1 e2 y
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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+ e* |* `3 c6 W. P( i5 s “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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1 o4 ^, S9 H6 n @2 ^, |框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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K, w/ a( ?6 @6 k4 \) L “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”7 U* P2 e1 c# G- h( p4 a K: P K
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势% |: g0 \9 X) [0 W
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。: D' g$ M! Z/ Y# e; `. D
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。8 K8 ]* `" v: @7 W% q
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。” Y+ d! h( h, O6 H/ |
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