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[虚拟币交流]
比特币:研究 BTC 是否难以维持在 10 万美元以上(转)
[复制链接]
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尽管价格强劲,但交易所动量、鲸鱼净流量和估值指标反映出内部疲软日益加剧。
1 k, D2 j+ C. Y/ ~/ G3 s. y网络活动落后于价格行动,除非用户参与度提高,否则有出现修正的风险。4 c+ T: c; }1 v. `
自六月初以来,比特币的[BTC]交易量势头有所下降,30 天平均值降至 59 亿美元,仅比年度平均值 55 亿美元高出 7%。. P: p: R# S5 Z, R- j* I
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尽管比特币价格稳定在 10 万美元以上,但溢价收窄表明交易者活动减少,投机兴趣萎缩。% ~; x3 m& p" N5 O; {. p
1 L+ e3 h! A' M1 f5 k截至撰写本文时,比特币交易价格为 108,259 美元,24 小时内下跌 0.67%。因此,尽管价格保持坚挺,但成交量减弱反映出投资者越来越谨慎。4 B& c3 O7 i/ y/ u6 z! x
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这种分歧通常先于波动性降低或调整期出现,尤其是当交易员尽管价格水平持续,但仍犹豫是否要部署新资本时。5 O4 O: K1 m; z2 Q; ]- t. P0 G
* m" B; e; a6 C' W" ?! a8 J6 X随着交易所资金外流占主导地位,鲸鱼是否失去了信心?9 Z. |, d- l2 Q) c/ h1 A- K
尽管流入资金暂时激增,但总体趋势表明,中心化交易所的净流量持续为负。
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例如,7 月 5 日录得少量流入,金额为 2564 万美元,但总体模式仍然以流出为主。; m; ?- o) k: \! n
/ M- L6 v; |; E- |8 {7 J# ~8 }这些持续的提款表明,大额持有者正在将资产转入自管,而不是准备出售。从历史上看,持续的资金流出表明他们正在增持或采取防御姿态。, O" R8 V0 n, F# |3 \% j. r
! {; S5 }0 E0 ?9 X; [$ L$ c3 U然而,近期的资金流出不足以抵消强劲的流入。交易量也在稳步下降。这表明交易环境脆弱,市场深度正在减弱。
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' u2 x! J5 R* E- X0 I4 J" H因此,价格大幅波动的风险正在增加。3 A I0 V6 B! y9 q
- N, L6 H# ?9 q) f, G+ s: p/ mBTC 被高估还是只是过热:NVM 比率说明了什么?4 o- c. P' u1 G- i- ]2 L
截至发稿时,比特币网络价值与梅特卡夫 (NVM) 比率上涨 14.14% 至 2.76,表明根据网络使用情况可能存在估值过高的情况。
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( Z2 D; H& m- ?* l: W该指标通过梅特卡夫定律将市值与用户活动进行比较,表明 BTC 的价格可能超过链上基本面。
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6 ^) x& @2 F' T" `当NVM比率上升而交易所动能和活动放缓时,通常表明投机性溢价正在累积。因此,在市场活动疲软的情况下,NVM比率的飙升值得警惕。7 P' v6 j7 R5 k3 v9 q" G+ x8 x
+ e) D1 }9 h2 m尽管多头继续捍卫 10 万美元的水平,但链上估值信号表明效率日益低下且潜在的价格脆弱性。
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随着价格与用户活动脱钩,网络弱点日益加剧
9 P8 o1 J5 ~- B; b值得注意的是,Santiment 数据显示 BTC 价格与其每日活跃地址(DAA)之间的差异越来越大,差异分数下降至 -175.79%。
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" _9 B0 n- j" @- i7 q3 R9 y/ g尽管比特币价格稳步攀升至 10.8 万美元,但活跃用户增长却未能跟上。这种长期存在的负向差异表明,即使比特币价格持续走高,其自然用户参与度仍在减弱。% Y" k/ D& ^: S! u" p: n
6 _4 d4 O7 F$ ~& _, G此外,网络吞吐量未能证实反弹,暗示当前的看涨结构可能缺乏可持续的支撑。& X- I8 p6 ^( I2 e1 v# G
8 m+ ?4 ~% A: u2 c. {如果用户参与度继续滞后,则可能会限制上涨势头或在情绪转变时引发大幅调整。% H6 i/ _1 P3 _! O) d/ O
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如果没有更强大的链上支持,BTC 能否维持 10 万美元? V1 ?5 U1 O/ r
比特币交易价格继续突破 10 万美元,但日益加剧的链上弱点使其涨势的可持续性受到质疑。! c G* D4 k7 o# k+ K) L
& ?" o: E8 X4 @交易所的势头已经放缓,表明交易活动减少,而鲸鱼的参与度仍然低迷,表明大户缺乏强劲的增持。$ ~) i& C7 o2 d, m: J
) b9 f S5 S- w6 {0 R0 y与此同时,估值指标正在发出超买信号,增加了潜在回调的风险。
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另一个担忧是,用户参与度未能跟上价格上涨的步伐,这暗示着市场存在潜在的结构性弱点。0 [: v4 u3 ?9 v8 r
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除非这些核心指标显示出有意义的改善,否则比特币可能难以维持目前的水平。
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展望未来,网络活动的再度激增和更广泛的投资者参与对于支持看涨叙事和推动进一步上涨至关重要。
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没人用、没人动,涨得再猛也可能一戳就破。短期谨慎,别只看K线忘了基本面。 |
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