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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
[复制链接]
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当前离线
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。
$ G/ [& f+ t, }! WAltcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。
# K% T( T0 H7 W. g0 e b& k越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。5 Z! s+ T3 S* z# x
你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。) K- p: [ w, A* c
从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。7 J) U( b7 E" s2 W9 V8 [8 F
alt/btc# j, b" j' H; C$ v8 V, ?0 K4 z
alt/usdt" \( ~3 U( N3 L8 z' O
那么，发生了什么？5 y/ ^& c" c9 V$ ^- G
1. 大户轮换资金3 |' W0 F; y* N# k' P# e
与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。4 p% o0 l8 V; O! n! L5 |' e. a
这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。" k# [4 G; F& N+ ~; v f
但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。
( U: `" J% L) L+ M1 m# g6 x8 y: q2. 市场的防御心理, X* ^/ e. z" I
投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。; G% F, g+ M" p
这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。$ W$ Q' N( {/ U& b' O. P+ n
3. 需要关注的信号
! z& ]8 E) T0 e# z; o5 ]BTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。
! O, d% q ]4 W% B7 F S山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。2 w V9 K% q9 P. G
USDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。/ F$ I' U$ w' ^1 Q# @! g
4. 对投资者的意义- Q, r, q/ E$ l+ I9 e3 _% @! O
在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。
, e9 W" Q7 v _: K* Z- H如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。. ~ H f+ Z7 I/ Z5 O
安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。
2 r9 J; T. g: v" B* |/ c结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。
, i% V# m4 \+ ^- d& R& A#加密货币#$ |4 Q+ h/ a- U* k( T& j* u
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当前离线
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当前离线
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活跃币:
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总在线: 1 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
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当前离线
经验:
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策小分:
总在线: 36 小时
本月在线: 7 小时
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 19232 小时
本月在线: 36 小时
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当前离线
经验:
天策币:
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总在线: 204 小时
本月在线: 13 小时
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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