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步骤四 大小球盘口造热分析7 `3 f& l f* y; c6 g* E8 o
1、基本方法! T9 }2 O# B# e: x2 \
得出理论盘口后,便可以将理论盘口和实际盘口进行对比,对盘口的造热方向做出分析,最终得出比赛的大小球结论。
$ a8 x2 m6 E9 j 下面再列举两个案例,对本步骤进行说明。. i7 B* \4 T& \6 I% ]
7 x$ F6 n- K6 |( ?$ R! Z% s1 O 威灵顿VS纽卡斯尔联队 (澳A联)
. e7 y& B. f( F! q! |: O) n. S9 B8 N 比分: 3-0
& b0 R6 D4 O8 }- u! _4 d9 x: Y 联赛性质: 小球联赛$ f% B& Q! Q$ i% C7 b& S5 u9 }
365初盘: 1.025 2\2.5球 0.825+ a% g; m0 K; Z
365终盘: 0.875 2\2.5球 1.025- ]* t0 y5 c# v& B* H5 E0 @5 z
8 `4 q* d7 [7 n3 E- J4 M" T
主队威灵顿近期两轮平均得失球3球、客队平均得失球2球;双方09年内最近一次的主客场交手平均得失球数为3球。本场预期值应为2.5球。从前面联赛属性知道澳A联因其总体攻击力较差,归属于小球联赛范畴,因此本场盘型可以在预期值基础上减弱.0.5个盘,也就是可以按照2至2/2.5球开出。365初盘高水符合实力开盘,临场阶段降水为低水,在符合实力开盘前提下,显然365对主队上轮的大比分做出防范,再结合双方交锋进球记录,可以判定这个降水的过程属于对大球的赔付保护。' S9 u" r% Y# B6 m' V. u0 t
例2:拜仁慕尼黑VS波尔多(欧冠)4 w( q5 t: g" m
比分: 0-29 T& h' a0 r* ]: f* P4 f" A% J+ ^* a
联赛性质:大球联赛+小球联赛
3 \# i+ y4 Y( ]( W0 B 365初盘:0.95 2.5球 0.95
3 F# j; G6 K/ P2 h 365终盘:0.85 2/2.5球 1.05
, w7 F" @- ^- c! ^& S7 b % c% t. i- D, v- T7 r k6 @* @
主队拜仁近期状态略为低迷,近期两个主场平均得失球只有1.5球。客队波尔多也在国内联赛中攻击乏力失球却较多,近两轮平均得失球为2.5球。双方最近一轮交手波尔多主场2-1取胜。可以得出本战双方的进球可能性为2.5球。结合双方联赛属性2.5球基础上可以对冲,也就是本场实力盘应为2.5球盘。
$ r' k6 W# {) } 365初盘2.5球中水,这是符合实力开盘,但是就双方上轮比赛进球数而言,这个水位显然存在观望意味,临场阶段降半个盘脱离了基本实力给出终盘,显然上盘给的过于便宜。最终未能打穿盘口2个进球2.5初盘输全2\2.5输半。; C3 C- _4 ]) N0 q. X
2、造热分析定义
, T/ B0 C4 ~6 b2 Z% U 通过上述案例和盘型分析,我们在对大小球进行造热分析时,应注意如下几点:& e1 X' e0 T5 g% @2 A, R; h
1. 盘口开大、对大球利好;临场不能出现降盘或水位呈热,否则小球。" F2 W' \0 y7 ]5 e3 r# {
2. 盘口开小、对小球利好;临场出现升水(中高水以上),则大球利好。
8 k2 }* Z0 S2 I, B8 C+ Y3 Z 3. 盘口适中、如水位维持在中水以下,大球利好。
$ {! a5 e) H0 \% D7 f 4. 盘口适中、临场出现升水,则应观察双方最近一轮的比赛中的得失球情况。
0 V0 `: j$ k9 I5 D 5. 盘口适中、临场降水,大球利好表现。; @! ^! K2 s% m, p" W$ C
6. 根据联赛属性增减盘口。同属大球联赛要增加0.5个盘;同属小球联赛要减少0.5个盘;联赛属性一大一小、则不做增减处理。
& Q0 e5 D, L/ A; M' J7 A- m 7. 强队主场应增加0.5个盘、强队客场盘口不做增减。
# I7 ^4 L8 d3 x2 y 盘口造热分析原理在大球球盘口分析中同样可以得到应用,但是在具体操作时还应注意以下加点:
3 ?+ k$ } R* j' y6 g2 U a.盘口造热分析可以借助欧赔和概率等精确数据进行换算并做出对比分析。而大小球盘口的并没有现成的指数可以参考,因此,球队信息是计算和分析盘口的主要依据。为了验证实际盘口和盘型的符合度及合理性,将大小球盘口与之所对应的让球盘进行对比,也是一种增加判断准确性的有效途径。例如,主让球半盘,大小球盘应在2.5球以上,否则进球盘与让球盘就不符合,属于大球盘口开小。再如,平/半盘如果开到2.5球或以上盘口,则属于大球盘口开大,对大球比分需加关注。(在本部分第四章影响进球数的模式分析中将具体讲述)
% K- i. ?' w% X! I$ M& `& ? b.在赔付控制方面,大小球往往做出较为正向的反映。也就是即使让球盘口大热,但是大小球盘口随之降水或升盘,并非就是上盘大热而全场进不了球的表现,大比分输盘实例并不罕见。3 ~4 {, H# C$ H1 n) g% J4 U
c.大球盘口造热分析不像盘口分析可以通过概率或欧亚换算精确到具体水位。但是,我们也可以通过如下几点对大球水位做出简单的判断。* }/ w9 E( M& D) k: P
当实际盘口与预期值接近时,大球水位不应超过中低水;9 s4 e b9 N5 s/ a" _4 Y
当实际盘口小于预期值时,大球水位不应低于中水;/ |" K) ^* M9 h
当实际盘口大于预期值时,大球水位应为中高水或高水,低水或超低水受热可能较大;4 n/ J8 L( f! h8 P# U7 _
当实际盘口等于理论盘型,大球水位应为中低水以下;3 B9 M. n3 y+ _, B. T" L+ t
当实际盘口小于理论盘型,大球水位不应低于中水;
7 r& E$ D' p: b 当实际盘口大于理论盘型,大球水位应为中高水或高水,反之受热;
) u, l2 k! G s& Y# X2 {! f/ u5 s 3、大小球造热分析的简化程序; `. v3 a5 o L7 t
1. 统计对阵两队的近期(2-6场)得失球平均数。* A% u7 f+ i3 P* o
2. 统计对阵两队(最近2次,限1-2个赛季内)交锋进球平均数。/ o. r/ h# B+ r& _2 m
3. 计算出平均预期值。
. f5 v& d9 K8 ^$ T! ?+ r% l 4. 平均预期值与联赛属性综合、进行盘口增加(一般为0.5-1个盘)。 ]; \. \- K& |% {3 Y
5. 将得出的理论盘口与实际盘口进行对比(参考前面的定义进行对比分析)) u* z% U) o/ C- z7 `3 `0 D
7 e8 d2 Y+ ^0 o, M' z' ^ 示例如下:
0 J& x2 ^% @2 ^" M( E( |6 I
8 Y$ q, R9 D' ?6 q! w 皇家社会 2-2巴塞罗那(国王杯)" n& J( P* e& J
双方4场平均得失球:2.9球
1 P4 T" H1 k4 \; }' i6 z& r6 s 交锋记录平均数: 2.5球
: l" C; g, \( ~5 t3 d3 A 预期值:2.9+2.5=2.7球( c. S7 ~: E L/ }5 [ t! ?
结合联赛性质得出理论盘口为:2.5球* k" h4 M* W+ f" w3 \ N
实际盘口:( W- f( L' I" \' d$ ]6 T
澳彩初盘:0.60 2.5球 1.20
& t& a5 Z3 ]! W1 T7 A& f, p 澳彩终盘:0.70 2.5球 1.106 j* F# O2 B! ^3 s8 J$ l
4 M" L3 L9 B* ?# b4 [
分析:计算得出的进球预期值为2.7个球,结合西乙和西甲的进球属性为一小一中,巴塞做客盘口不做增减,分析出的理论盘口应为2/2.5球或2.5球;实际盘口为2.5球超低水,盘口合理前提下大球贴水较低,打穿盘口的概率较大。 |
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