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[虚拟币交流] 比特币期权出售热潮再次涌现,交易者锁定高价看涨期权权利金收益(转)
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1#
        在一年前备受青睐的盈利策略之一,卖出或出让比特币看涨期权,近期因市场疲软削弱了现金持有及套利套利策略的吸引力而再度升温。
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6 h' G% S0 j; p% {  t4 Q. d出售看涨期权实质上是为买方提供一种针对价格上涨的保险,作为回报,卖方获得一笔补偿金,即权利金,这也是卖方理论上能获取的最大收益。) n( V, v2 u5 `& Q7 t1 |
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2022年底至2023年上半年期间,交易者持续以显著高于当时市场价格的行使价出售比特币和以太坊的看涨期权,借此在现货持仓的基础上额外赚
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取收益。据算法交易公司Wintermute提供的数据,他们如今正出售于5月底到期、行权价为80,000美元的BTC看涨期权,而当前比特币的价格约在
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58,000美元上下。
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Wintermute在一份报告中指出:“交易者们普遍采取的一种策略是在远高于现价的位置出售虚值看涨期权,比如设定在5月底的80,000美元价位。% C; X% P4 F9 N; |* Z
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鉴于此执行价超出当前高位区间,实际执行的可能性较低,这使得交易者既能收取权利金,又能降低潜在风险。”% Z& m) r" F/ M# p1 B( H
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若5月底比特币价格低于80,000美元,期权卖家则可全额保留收到的权利金;但如果价格飙升至80,000美元以上,且卖家未采取对冲措施或持有现
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货市场多头头寸,则可能面临亏损。
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" }  O; e3 t* t! W  I% t6 s对出售比特币期权需求增长的迹象可以从领先的加密货币期权交易所Deribit的隐含波动率指数(DVOL)下降中看出,该指数反映了基于期权对未来' @9 M# ~0 h: s. N
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30天价格波动预期的度量。隐含波动率受期权市场需求影响,卖出偏好的增强往往会使该指标下降。% s( x! u* A' @

: p# h8 R, g# Y3 ?根据TradingView的数据,DVOL在过去10日内从年化72%急剧降至59%。以太坊的DVOL上周从80%跌至60%,随后本周反弹至接近80%。1 n" ~6 ]7 [  l! m2 k

4 ?" ?' }$ b# A& e! c- {新加坡QCP Capital同样注意到上周大规模出售BTC看涨期权的情况,并在上周的市场报告中指出:“这是由于现货市场价格停滞不前,基差收益趋$ f7 I  \* u% H! }2 H

1 t* `9 l6 a4 v# s弱导致的。不少客户已转而采取期权出售策略。”
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) E& E  |! H3 i- ~$ U; O# u受现货交易所交易基金需求减少、美元指数走强等因素影响,比特币在周三跌破56,600美元,结束了在60,000至70,000美元区间长达四周的盘整。, s  t- u# |: w  Q6 D6 N- A
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现金与套利套利策略是指在现货市场买入标的资产的同时,当期货合约出现显著溢价时卖出期货合约,从而捕捉溢价收益并规避直接价格波动的
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风险。近几周以来,期货溢价大幅缩减,使得该策略相较于第一季度吸引力锐减。
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' H0 s9 O+ X* R如Binance、OKX和Deribit等交易所上市的比特币期货三个月年化溢价已降至接近5%,相比于3月底高达28%的水平大幅缩水。芝加哥商品交易# x9 ]) B6 z1 d* I
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所(CME)上市的受监管期货的溢价也有类似幅度的下滑。这意味着原先较为稳定的市场中性投资策略,其回报率不再能够明显优于美国国债等相, [' ?1 B* P1 F" d2 y

, v( I7 y/ Z. A( N& z/ t对安全的投资工具。7 t  V9 ]" A) X& G' o
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2#
各种收益看着也是不少的了。
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3#
如果有了有把握的盈利策略,那就好了
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若要说保险要借鉴谁的话,那一定是老哥的了啊
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这个理论打法是需要向这个朋友多学习一下的。
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6#
都说是保险了,那一定得是牢靠的
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这样的盈利成果也太厉害了吧,都让我十分嫉妒了
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具体的理论打法还得让玩家来解答啊
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9#
我现在还是研究一下理论打法,感激你的分享,我也来收藏
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你这样的盈利也是相当让我眼馋啊,到底是怎样做到的
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天天盈利什么也是格外让人眼红了啊,闲暇时多多说说策略啊
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12#
理论尽管看起来很牛逼,或许我还是不行
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理论整体问题不大,关键控制的好了
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14#
这样的理论打法是十分科学好有道理哦,我也来收藏
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15#
玩游戏一定为了要盈利,没人想要亏钱的
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16#
谢谢老哥的理论分享,也是可以了解到许多的。
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楼主这是要飞天的节奏啊,都已经盈利了
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
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