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[lastpost] => 2768741 比特币、以太坊:短线崩盘后反弹,无明显催化剂 1758764442 知行合一
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周一,加密货币市场遭遇大规模清算,超过15亿美元的多头头寸被强制平仓,引发了近一个月来最严重的闪崩行情。根据Coinglass的数据,在过去24小时内,超过40.7万名交易员被强制平仓,看涨押注的平仓总额一度超过15亿美元。以太坊受创最重,价格一度暴跌9%至4075美元,近5亿美元的杠杆多头头寸被抹去。比特币也未能幸免,下跌近3%至111998美元。美股盘前基准股指下挫,科技股普跌。
6 _- ^: c4 _2 E' t+ m. J市场分析师认为,7 \# D" n* E; v9 [
此次暴跌主要由过度杠杆和山寨币涨势过热引发的连强制平仓所致。清算和追加保证金通知触发自动卖单,加速了比特币的下跌。
3 d; n9 g* u7 p# M# O. J P0 B2 d% s这种连锁反应导致短时间内巨额平仓,使整个数字资产总市值跌破4万亿美元大关。
' o% o, C& J0 R! k% @. ~: f' XXBTO Trading的高级交易员George Mandres表示:
( f$ ?/ L: O9 D“市场似乎需要喘息之机,一些参与者担心‘数字资产财库交易’(DAT-trade)正在失去动力,且未来没有更多有意义的资金流入。”
3 d1 c$ g# ]' R% s6 z下跌引发连锁反应( k# r( z2 A2 C) \4 ?
周末开始的下跌,在周一加速演变为全面平仓。
! C# n! A( J" b7 |5 m9 V! }根据CoinGlass数据,; | a& B$ F. k. I) o( R
过去24小时内平仓金额达到4.42亿美元,为8月29日以来的最高水平。清算事件一度在一小时内达到10亿美元的峰值。
- E, D9 y* J' G4 y+ S4 {% n: f比特币跌破11.43万美元关键支撑位后,触发了大量多头头寸的强制平仓。在短短四分钟内
' [3 m+ N+ A4 W% \! _2 a9 _3 v,比特币价格跌破11.2万美元,随后小幅反弹至11.3万美元附近。
/ h& @+ ~/ v4 ~/ H除了主流代币外,此次清算还影响了价值1.097亿美元的小型资产。近期表现强劲的ASTER、WLFI、PUMP等代币也遭遇显著清算。连BNB也在从900美元涨至近1100美元后出现有限的多头平仓。
' {1 o( f7 X, k* d6 A- t历史上,多头头寸一直是清算损失的主要承担者。上一次大规模平仓潮发生在2025年2月,当时24小时内平仓金额达22亿美元,约70万名交易者失去头寸。3 K! [% g3 n$ t N
技术指标显示超卖状态,“山寨币季节”戛然而止: ^3 H r, _/ M Y3 ]* j( n }( W
在这场抛售中,以太坊和各类山寨币的跌幅远超比特币。周一,当比特币兑美元汇率下跌约2.5%时,
# t" h/ n& p* P2 R以太坊的跌幅超过6%。以太坊相对于比特币的汇率(ETH/BTC)也突然跌至0.037,创下一个月来的新低。
4 M: r2 H$ m8 W+ w& i以太坊价格一度回落至4200美元区间,虽然相较于年初仍有26%的涨幅,但已从8月下旬创下的4900美元以上的历史高点大幅回调。同时,以太坊的未平仓合约总额从近期的约300亿美元回落至270亿美元,反映出衍生品市场热度的降温。9 C: m$ ]. ~, a i; m; W# v7 R+ p# `( m
清算和追加保证金通知触发更多自动卖单,加速了比特币的下跌。这种强制平仓形成的连锁反应是造成短时间内巨额平仓的主要原因。* P6 {8 ?1 I# z/ U3 b
相对强弱指数在大幅下跌期间进入超卖区域,一度跌破20,' \" q, J2 u- B2 D; S8 z- p' z& ?
凸显了交易者行动的速度和严重程度。如此深度的超卖状态通常伴随清算驱动的崩盘,价格走势更多受强制平仓而非有机卖出驱动。% G8 D5 l% b" _2 k
分析认为,最近几周并非真正的“山寨币季节”,而更像是一场由少数代币(如BNB)领涨的“短暂的半山寨币季节”。当这些领涨代币积累的过度热情消散时,便引发了整个市场的连锁下跌。目前,比特币的市场主导地位已回升至56.2%,而以太坊的主导地位则下滑至12.8%。
4 O5 P) ~+ a$ @/ k( f9 i" O: w狂热情绪降温,市场寻求喘息之机, M* {" k/ h4 O) [/ I+ K7 t& z
市场分析人士指出,
0 G( }. w. N& U1 R( t此次大规模平仓主要由利率上升预期引发。" H0 l. q# L) v0 j8 E* S
紧缩货币政策通常对加密货币等另类资产构成压力,当债券和储蓄等安全资产收益率上升时,加密货币对投资者的吸引力下降。
% S5 Y3 I) {4 a8 X此次闪崩普遍被视为对前几周市场狂热情绪的修正。8月份,在所谓“数字资产财库公司”(即公开宣布将加密货币作为财库储备资产的公司)需求的推动下,比特币和以太坊双双创下历史新高。
) X$ }7 J7 t1 f0 x1 ?' X q市场分析人士指出,当前的回调在加密市场的正常波动范围内。从历史上看,“山寨币季节”通常较为短暂,往往只持续数周。从积极的方面看,DeFi领域的借贷协议并未受到大规模清算的威胁,因为大多数贷款头寸保持保守,大规模平仓水平远低于当前价格。; i" F( \" @) w" w( `$ M
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