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比特币在周六跌破110,500 美元，一天內下跌超2%，因投资者对第四季度行情反弹的信心减弱。谨慎情绪源自分析师PlanC的观点，他认为依赖过去减半周期来预测价格高点在统计上是有缺陷的。 PlanC将其比作抛硬币谬误，并警告交易者，比特币的历史并不能保证重演。他说：“没有任何统计证据支持第四季度见顶，市场环境与此前的周期相比已经发生了巨大变化。比特币ETF和企业金库持仓已经改变了游戏规则，基于旧周期的预测毫无用处 这一观点动摇了市场的看涨情绪，投资者开始质疑比特币能否突破上月的124,128美元高点。市场调查显示，近70% 的受访者预计BTC会先跌至105,000美元，然后才可能进一步走高。 - 分析师PlanC警告：周期数据缺乏统计支撑。
- 调查显示：70%的交易员认为BTC会先见105,000美元再创新高。
- 比特币ETF和机构采用：正在重塑旧有周期模式。% Z! i: r9 W: u: I
8 {5 V8 w. b" j( |1 P! i5 ^
( S( n3 G/ V v# r9 ]2 q6 N4 [$ J+ t
' P5 I6 ] b P! Z8 b3 }# I疲弱就业数据支撑BTC
0 C7 C/ \, m: e. B2 j尽管第四季度的市场情绪有所降温，但宏观经济条件正在提供支撑。最新的美国就业报告显示数据弱于预期，包括招聘放缓、失业率上升，以及对先前报告的下调修正。 市场反应剧烈：美债收益率下跌，美元指数下跌0.70%，而9月降息预期飙升。宽松的货币环境历来利好比特币，因为它受益于疲弱的美元和更低的借贷成本。 “一旦劳动力市场走弱，就给了美联储降息的空间。”一位策略师表示，并强调这种宏观背景可能会减少比特币的下行风险。尽管短期谨慎情绪仍存，但偏鸽的美联储可能有助于稳定比特币价格。 5 }8 [' t2 g5 A6 S; z8 T
; `/ T% y8 Z5 y' T: d比特币 (BTC/USD) 短期与长期技术展望比特币价格预测保持中性。4小时图表显示，BTC正在形成一个上升三角形，阻力位在113,400美元，而自8月下旬以来一直形成更高低点。
& @5 W) Q e% u+ s50日均线 (SMA) 在110,021美元处支撑价格走势，200日均线 (SMA) 在112,606美元形成枢轴位。 U `7 l3 v4 `/ ~; ^5 |% p
RSI位于50，显示处于盘整阶段，并伴有轻微的看涨背离；动能正在企稳。 如果比特币能在强劲成交量的推动下突破$113,400，上行目标将依次看向$115,400和$117,150。
( t! N9 d7 B# |. x! Y! y若在阻力位受挫，价格可能回落至$108,770支撑附近。
" y6 U# ?! z$ W从长期走势来看，比特币依然运行在一个上升的周线通道内。 下一个关键阻力位在134,500美元 附近，而斐波那契延展水平显示，如果动能加速，潜在上行目标可能扩展至171,000美元，甚至231,000美元。在下方，95,000–100,000美元区间构成强力支撑，预计将吸引买盘，从而维持整体的上升趋势结构。 |
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