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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。: u9 B( N) C5 u: d/ ]
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。7 q$ e) R9 ]( `
F* I5 V3 N7 {, a3 ?; H- E自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
7 c* s1 ?5 _6 ]& l4 V3 \+ y5 j1 { ~5 M2 n0 b6 @5 G0 I' y6 p$ _5 E
2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
% @/ H, S; ?; D( l: w
/ d ^) E" g0 `6 W2 I那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?' R$ m$ k3 ^( m# R. b, h2 {
- B. F' Y, {7 g4 K观察ETF和鲸鱼活动' b- A4 d2 n4 Y2 m6 D
分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
! j$ F& Z) G; a0 O9 N& d% f7 {/ i2 W) f* ~/ U* n9 S7 {5 e
上周降至1300 BTC。/ S! M4 X2 |7 l* S9 v1 P
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从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。1 r1 n4 {# V1 N; E( Z2 I) p
" l# r! d' g0 I4 G2 p I
鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。, B! w0 v# Z% E( i! P* A
( Z9 C7 p$ u) A7 {4 f鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。& T2 _+ _# A, v5 A
) D* S0 T# [! m9 g& N- X& GSantiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。* Z# s2 N* h/ ]! p7 }9 @
: d7 f9 U- @+ v- [尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。2 q' A8 P3 Y$ y: Z
3 T) T" |# n! m1 |# H比特币会突破其区间吗?1 B6 l2 Q* B" z! i$ k, C4 \) D' ?& j8 K
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。9 y) z; s1 e# ~! Z( x
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根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。/ w8 ]! A5 B. M( O8 K: D. g f5 j
# @4 t7 F, A; K0 g* Y2 v因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。7 g" a. s8 H1 d+ W! ~# x
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。6 D" p2 S% z/ ]% \ }
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位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。7 K* D5 `3 L2 n5 H0 K
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
' [9 {9 D+ z5 E2 I; X+ o5 f4 A9 @5 ^) c
根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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