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小分3种情况:. h! ~, k F& G
' B. z, L# w9 O3 T( Y
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
& I( G# k8 c- ^5 Y7 L
$ t8 s1 l0 I1 d2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
. \, [; B/ o+ v2 z( M# X4 V: r4 m
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
4 ?. c d( x$ ~) A3 D+ s7 C
" }: J$ ^, _+ G; J1 e% G; o! ~. H2张牌8或9点的情况有:1 N7 u/ P! u4 G& a i0 U; f) u( i
; s/ n3 J3 o4 O8 @
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
+ f, T5 N: J2 E& u3 M+ t- b$ t# ~3 \9 L& e. P2 A8 F; N0 ` \
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
$ O2 b' x- E) v" \8 M8 \9 n) X# b1 p6 K, K- I; q: f
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415: G! {# t# @# X5 _8 q6 Y9 R' ?$ K7 ?
' Q; g- f, I- D8 {8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
' K" l8 N3 b* J* V! A- p! G5 r- Z: `, D; n! C( Y: N0 p5 S
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
+ \- Y9 F' t7 [9 ]# P' ^7 V( a4 f- f2 _
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。. {5 o/ u+ |; k3 S
% ^# S% S2 \! x, t K7 \9 t那么我们可以得出
/ |+ O ]" \% F# d" K1 W8 g& A/ ^9 [& g. b/ Y
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
+ t4 t. y+ P' T0 O- |7 i8 a
* L) \, ^4 ~7 o. O8 u6 i* a; j2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
% z" \$ M9 u5 k
) d' F% C' X- F" x# i( f$ B, Y3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
3 U# ?$ V% b, E3 o4 I
" U* k4 }) Q0 F2 l' V0 X所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323& }! L( M0 s+ b1 k9 T
- m8 i4 F7 f9 W6 z7 T" ]百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.6211306774 ^. N# G" W- I/ t4 \
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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