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小分3种情况:
8 `9 b; Z' Q' v6 M- y: s: j
: z- i' K. r5 `8 [1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。9 }! }7 k7 l$ G- s* u6 n! E9 k$ I
+ C! }* k& U8 q3 I n7 W! {+ n3 w2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
^ Q% Q. m/ T" N( m( w% \7 ?
8 }5 D7 V( _, Z2 o1 m$ U7 O1 z( J% H3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。) @& Q3 S0 S7 w {
" ~; g L) n+ x* s
2张牌8或9点的情况有:9 `8 R4 o# c" `+ Q
4 Y6 {; Q$ n1 U- g5 N2 K- [
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
. Z& B8 D* V/ z6 @1 }3 T& T3 _$ S/ g. @0 k; d/ U; Z, N
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
( M; I1 h! I* L; q& |7 Y7 \& G+ J8 a1 S0 m. t; k m( g$ D# h9 e- C
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
" A$ i1 h4 w w6 C. r' X4 `; N9 o! ^/ T# Z" @
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
! r) l4 v6 A- K* c& [
/ H3 @8 t p+ c/ l- V由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。, u* a9 s4 L( G6 [
! l/ f9 U! j8 `* Q- ?2 O通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。- I; U T; n' G6 d
! x( q) U) E$ i+ m% M那么我们可以得出
- M- g( J7 r) K9 h6 o" N
: {. q' _' u- R4 b! }! z! e1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662. a, r( L0 n t+ q7 w. I5 ~, f: |
# P( |+ }( b+ n8 y
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 . l _1 ?# S" b# K& @- k+ F
; W) x; K9 f# X) |4 ?" v3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491' h8 _ O( O' Y6 K
3 x. Q' m; [# C+ h- P3 }
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
2 C. y4 `7 j) d2 Y, B6 w- `2 x- F! H; @! ~; c
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.6211306772 Q6 q% i. c$ L: B' I! D0 e
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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