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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。% @ X& P1 s: j* v Z9 O9 [
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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! Z2 ]+ `4 Q- _/ D3 y& v2 ]开局艰难，但历史看好牛市* g9 R/ A! X3 l5 y
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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% g0 g- }0 g- C( B$ g8 w4 ^7 `0 ]来源：Alphractal( [. U( Z; F4 I* S5 e5 S
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。1 j. g7 F/ v; I7 Y% l4 f" y1 C
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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/ v2 x7 M% i) \4 p事情变得有趣了$ Q& Q1 c: ]; t5 ?: H _5 a& h6 `
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X$ h! J. U' |# O+ n
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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/ h& C7 |" U7 C7 B正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。4 b% A5 _% |* r/ N. R: r/ `
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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5 B3 M/ ]* K( I5 F; }( I4 `空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力$ k t1 z( x: D) f
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。9 ^: `* ~6 Q& Q2 G F0 {. }5 s
5 S) f1 h Y' D来源：TradingView' O4 h4 K, P q( F
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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7 j0 ~4 x- @ q然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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0 x5 K( B. |9 x突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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