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[lastpost] => 2761349 破拾万大关！！！ 1756599680 JCl666
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。
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值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。$ w4 v8 V& @; l5 ?) U1 X+ b( |! [0 j
2 K* ?. @4 X! \然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。
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8 s: S! B4 D+ }; i1 `3 C宏观信号依然支持
* a* h5 |" Y) s# m! q q. j3 i美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。$ i$ e: @/ L; o4 b. W8 E- G. M" ?3 L, J, P
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该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。 e5 `8 ^" \" ^9 {6 b
( r4 x$ |0 z- P% D) N8 t9 s从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。+ [$ O6 l, S: o/ g% P
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市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.+ b. [! `* Z, l4 e9 B3 H j
: P. `, F6 H. L9 ^" y这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。
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著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。 D+ c5 @. l# l8 S
( |$ U0 {, _, Y/ a0 V0 J9 B# U他补充道，
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' @+ ]3 C- {, C: {6 p; w“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。”( z7 w! F3 e& h' Z# _$ e
$ f! I1 L: f/ G- a韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。* d/ x* D* C( S, U
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他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。
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亚洲比特币市场再度走强
6 D1 ?$ P8 f6 y8 B5 s. v亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.
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J" N0 K5 _$ f/ [% ]; B此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。+ C/ r9 s2 D/ c5 n. U; l* a
- K- H' X1 k8 |$ s相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。
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然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。
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这种行情，我还是宁愿相信宏观信号，继续看涨比特币。 |
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧- n, y! n% \ b; P9 I, v8 C
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