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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不
& i; }, c# `5 x0 r断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。. |% h6 P6 V1 O1 m1 C! E
但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上# h% I9 N: R7 t( }3 B( C
30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。
) s7 {1 z6 S& J; y9 R% a6 A波动率历史低点，爆发到来？. Z) \6 ?; e: H: f& |; u& @
近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄
6 K0 k6 d( ]( b2 l2 Z7 s& L! M金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
" P- ~( a* A1 ~* V从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的
~' P" \, H9 C! a9 p# L9 Q% f低点。
. P4 _7 L2 \( `4 X! }8 }0 r全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
* r# s3 y T( o' @; i另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突
) U. y& \$ k" o) {4 O显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。. Y+ @: ^9 K& ?/ @5 H$ b" N
目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机+ }+ S1 j4 X$ j
率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。
' a7 F! X9 }3 {4 W/ Y! i) d美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael
8 X+ y O4 [# R6 `! iBostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。. c9 D) l/ g* k- b" m: J" i
“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种
9 K6 a- a3 X0 q1 K4 M, B" C情况不会在短时间内结束。”% i7 d2 ^1 R: Q" Z4 q
纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下6 b: E$ }$ s1 f& n7 Z2 C" e
降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。
% }5 A. d( | H& U比特币ETF即将通过？% G& v I3 B* B# q+ J/ e3 F
另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg4 c$ q. N# A E' D& n: t7 B
资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上% m9 U) e% F# f/ j& C- o6 I) W$ L
表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的
- y$ |4 W, C9 L$ c1 Y* {问题。
& G& n1 Z$ v* Q似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。
, P8 Q- `0 v7 n/ p- M1 p7 E( t% h+ h& e9 w3 S9 p
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