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小分3种情况:" I2 b8 n% ~! V" n6 W+ y
( y+ t Q/ x* \) N" E$ ~1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
A7 B% W' H. o# Z/ F
" b* ^0 [, h5 D. i. s0 Y V2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
* x0 f; g) |1 m+ u- L% q$ P! o+ F" ~6 H
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
/ q" l8 E, L/ `% y( f/ g0 \) b5 `2 I4 K! b
2张牌8或9点的情况有:, w& H7 Y9 u' o$ C$ m
# ]+ d: [1 Q/ o& E9 r0 w m* U1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
, w* u' k) e d9 d: I ^7 k% V f/ [6 h R
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415$ `2 z j7 X. n2 H2 r3 D. \
& H( p% W1 ^* l0 C; V. U
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
! D/ {+ l+ U/ F- {9 y: S v7 d
: D4 I1 @3 I1 _- F! P* u( _8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415: L o8 \4 N& F; B
, R( J# m* u, F4 o由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
1 F1 r- w) m L Q4 S
6 {7 L; h- q) F2 H5 Q/ }" k1 C! r通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
# A4 j; k* Z" f: I& B( S3 ?! V9 X0 V: s U; D3 u, V4 z5 s# K
那么我们可以得出5 ~! {$ R, o9 I. f0 q
+ j9 H |" E7 A
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662( S: s0 @+ w0 c% |7 g
# d+ f! t" I, j: z% \2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
% s0 @' o* n6 K2 O$ L
* @4 O7 i" N8 \ L3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491' T- b! q, i- C C1 k+ x# Q5 x
# ]" e: H5 P# X" g$ z
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.3788693239 O; I9 c& K' K# ?. V; m9 ?
; k) V6 f5 F: |! X% x4 g; a2 i; H
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.6211306774 }# L1 \8 W2 h/ G h: j
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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