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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑7 u9 F# x- M/ L% ^! e
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凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k0 b4 M5 Y1 C+ H$ h7 A
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
5 L5 C9 }7 D% N \什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
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既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧! 8 f4 g/ q$ v. }8 h, t! u/ O) v
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$ a2 x* K4 r5 B( A+ s做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `+ k) P* k0 V0 C0 q# l- e' ?
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, h, |8 Z) H9 v9 w(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
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% U2 c! ^3 k2 K4 j6 M(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 2 Y! ?" q8 }' _! R6 T7 R' T! ^
% v% ? O' U( a: V1 m& ~: n(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
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, f" A( H3 H d5 m(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 0 w6 l" `" z7 j& W4 T& D6 W6 C
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我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
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S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
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S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
/ Q4 q1 |# _. S- i ~% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s; i% y9 J% \/ a1 t# p2 x
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
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S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
7 _2 b+ s9 }4 S" R% u7 r8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
4 C; d: ?% `0 x. D$ ^7 b: ]1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 8 \. u8 k9 ~& E7 x4 I% k
0 f g" T5 d0 ^; d1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q: N" ^& W$ M) \" r
# x6 o5 m+ ^3 q* k4 |: u1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ) J6 G: Q, }% c# S0 W8 P1 R
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7 k! ~. U4 L$ S4 h, Z6 K# S% tS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
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6 m, \% Z# W. U+ d* M9 \类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
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$ \0 J1 Z8 K7 Q4 L7 a/ e; sS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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# `" ?# O0 T3 `+ M. z# F' ]S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 2 a) x2 A* ]5 g# ~8 j
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- W1 |: C- d8 J- Q. d8 ^S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 , w1 e2 R& @$ |: |8 z
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~. K- R( Y' h. g9 U4 a# A! r; C
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o5 ~7 X$ w9 j- l4 B B
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好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
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1 W5 u6 \; b; @; e' g9 `" [9 mF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
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0 D& {" r7 u/ u2 ]于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M% c- b+ \! b, W! g7 x
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5 C4 F J7 |+ Z1 Y( ]G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
7 {- t! ?" R% o0 ]* z U, a
1 s" p H2 F8 {' J$ eG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]7 Q- B- @4 y3 m+ s
. {# V7 K w; {
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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