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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
$ q# ?& c9 Z. g; q, ]% ^0 m) G* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c! Z- @; D+ D! ~
凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k! Q" c3 Q2 P# K7 w" ?
" U3 t3 \' C/ ~3 u/ s! Z1 [& _G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
, O) T u2 X2 C* S0 K6 h7 W什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
; y1 I7 }' u; G# K# N# e8 W7 b
0 a+ O9 [& e- ^% `; i% ]0 _7 C& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h4 B, l* {* u0 K. I
既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
& L) y3 p5 B; |9 o! v7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
+ U) O9 s% y* I' j+ H$ ~做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `( U: e& U: a% O5 W0 G* l" j! R
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d+ w( L; W0 u y; e5 {7 B) `+ v
(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n* v+ y! z6 z& R) z; r
% b2 i) J% b9 b0 g; b# `
(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 ! N$ G& r2 `+ B5 l$ x& V8 @4 ]
3 ^) ^3 X3 D) B, S. R' X' w(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
( O- x6 A. s& p8 b' {/ L+ y8 V1 M9 m/ |4 q3 }' }; M- K) q- C
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 3 T! ]" H, w* Y6 q9 T! u" M8 P
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
y0 M" S- F' F7 u: G: L- `我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ; f, I" F, q! n' ?+ F* A' v
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
* n6 ?/ Q; H- c# pS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 { Z# s7 y) q7 f
6 H+ T1 a6 }, A9 t0 \
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
8 Q9 J; k9 k8 q) i, k% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s% N( z/ H& Y# g
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 8 A( }& E4 {$ u, L& \& ~; \, F1 \
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
5 ^9 ~. \4 {9 U, mS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
+ p7 v6 B& c$ w. Q8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v+ s2 A8 w' k5 C2 R
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
1 a; G( R6 ^% [" |. c/ x
6 u% v2 a, k% J& E1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
' [! {* n0 F6 M8 T* s" F h. K2 i6 T( T
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q$ B$ g3 F; |( E; m x* Q
1 _6 ?. @7 A/ e; ]7 r0 c" c
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 6 ?0 K/ b# ^/ d0 o* j; P' D: p# g
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
" m6 b+ G8 |& r0 I& f9 BS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T, ~8 _9 Z2 J6 K0 N; T5 g
# G* E8 ^2 C& G" T类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j5 m3 a: H3 J+ W9 s! d
6 \8 [8 C5 h6 p, P* e4 H
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 5 v# w( v& R, [; S! w
) H- F" p: i3 x% O. |S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
- b- D$ y! o9 L' O; m' V% T, u, P% O
& x, F l1 }' m, U+ } ^S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
2 p9 X6 d# |: a& G8 I/ b, p8 T: C6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
/ {5 p) u T* g, I4 X1 A9 j! IS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
) O5 g# ]8 Y" x7 W% z% J. q, R: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~# P6 m0 \' `. d/ T0 y
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o; D9 J5 I0 a9 U5 b5 |, f+ a$ o, _
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
: X+ \' b! q( u( {好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 4 H9 R* m& } {; t+ l+ b& T5 J: U
) q( ], k9 L T& t( n1 F/ m" a p( o
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
$ l. P# g9 v& s6 U2 y! q" e
9 M9 Z6 j3 X: u0 Z, UF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
& i5 [; V& l% i7 B
, _" }% D" q6 @! V" U) k于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?; V. H: |) T. i9 Z/ `
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {( w7 a7 z8 v$ E) d% N1 Q
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M7 W1 t# T9 z6 y. @
+ D$ n) P# X# M
( f3 J! s9 ^/ i- t$ QG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
; i: D+ ~; s5 T, \ a
- t: V3 \ y. T ]2 \' uG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]' `( u: C+ _; r+ X% n4 c+ _
/ ?- r9 u& M, D6 i6 }, G
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \' J5 } B9 R/ I" G, l. f# o7 \
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i1 E" F- n A. y9 D
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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