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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
! i7 M4 p9 m+ m* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c$ d, r. b' H: _
凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
8 l- H+ ?% F( ~+ e
7 T& A* I3 G: X9 j: k1 o( M+ OG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
/ g1 g0 ~. t! E& f- ~8 c什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [- A3 x- g1 [; Z4 C8 \5 d% K+ w
- s9 Q% t- F, y5 A0 `3 V& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h$ h9 {& v/ N; K. H6 ~* N
既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧! : E) o. P# i# u3 u
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
9 X! a9 o* A. N* T: {4 z做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `0 \' D' w7 f4 g$ \- j4 K$ l9 G
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
. ~" Q I& V- a9 Q! r: \- R(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n8 @: s6 t* [5 h% [7 V8 D
9 w1 r4 a3 q1 o5 H j' p; n
(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 ' J8 s" j2 @' y
& a$ a i! j1 O% H(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
( B0 d1 o' S: P1 u- y% N& |+ o9 y; n
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 # a' Z' N/ Q6 {$ A
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _( \+ R3 q& i$ _1 T7 O
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
! {: H0 z1 h9 ]' P1 L b4 h+ E5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
9 P! `4 T1 i$ w& v3 L- \+ ES1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 * n7 p7 O/ O" V2 D
! m# U( ?! E' [8 K* t4 a1 o4 I: z
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 5 \* E5 X' U5 {7 Y( d
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s1 i( X; _1 Q. f
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 6 a2 t) i9 K) {! |# p$ K
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j, L# F+ E; K" H6 H3 z! m" n0 [
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
2 I/ g3 L8 |2 h$ c$ _2 r8 N* x8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
( F; o6 `! T3 X; m1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 ! i1 d3 P1 f5 V$ c
. F3 |0 q4 e! S9 R% n4 @1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l; ~3 Q7 |# O' h* X& Z
" _: p m% ]: ^5 U" M1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q+ X' _- W9 I z# j5 l
0 X3 V7 y& c( K1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 % o$ R. T$ c9 h6 w& ^8 _
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r/ v$ j* i1 L) [3 w
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
1 X3 D ]0 a! O5 Q2 c L) x$ h6 c- B0 i8 ]0 Z+ A) W3 F/ J9 T
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
$ Z7 G" D# u6 s/ v& X% z& }' u$ V: v6 J9 `2 T- J( `9 f2 B
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
+ _9 \2 b% x" H+ N6 u6 a- e
4 D$ C0 K* Z: j/ W! D9 ]8 w) Z5 BS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
% U6 N) P( `7 k; r( Q* A; m' V% T, u, P% O
0 ]* N! G- B' P" gS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 1 {. ]% @9 t6 y2 R, @4 X% {
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
, F) T7 y* X% S1 {+ w* C8 t/ W' h% _S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
4 Z* K6 Y# ~' ~4 K, Z$ n" A1 l0 H: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~1 D1 z( Q; ^' O9 {& I8 G) g& q
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
0 y4 I" d! X- a. X* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \! C) \2 d4 D+ G
好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
/ Q0 e4 m* \, E) q( ], k9 L T& t v7 r% P+ D; ^+ o( I
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 : I, l# H7 ^( r2 L7 @ }" H
, g- o$ ^: r0 X3 d. R; sF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
0 Y/ B8 C# J5 c5 A
1 I! ~* _; K" E+ G% T7 w! v于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?& b5 ^9 e; S9 w) U- N5 [1 h: x
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {+ V) q. U/ ]9 o& p
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
/ y% B- Q0 F$ ~, Y, l1 w+ D$ n) P# X# M9 @; X( r! M; k
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 1 x8 J3 l' E. T2 G; t
d1 j/ W: \ N; w/ B4 M- i' L
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]# y3 Z' i. x2 R' }: |8 i6 y9 s
' E8 W" z! x9 ~ ]* [当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
6 T( J a$ J& f/ \2 ?" I6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i8 F# n) N, T+ a0 M; h! `% `! b
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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