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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
4 Q& {+ V9 Q, Y3 t% F. e& y; f* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c' }2 n9 j4 m; O" m5 Y9 U* h
凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k3 P, q$ C* c7 Q8 Z
1 h x7 d8 R( j0 p4 Y" \
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
" `2 k2 c+ C; y% e什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
9 c" O6 I/ r6 a) [# E
]2 `8 v- z+ y9 ?& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h) @2 u+ ?4 z0 @/ {6 l6 T/ c
既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧! 8 w; K, l3 u3 ?% j6 n# X2 u5 X
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
0 f" S# i4 v7 D1 k做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `! X: B7 f# L9 n
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d( a7 A" T' G) l, E. z' v( F* g
(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
: @1 v- l1 {1 B3 ^& s6 \8 P2 g$ X7 ]- Z5 [, k, S9 x7 R
(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00
/ V& B5 j P7 {8 V7 o& a2 c% O+ U2 ?
' i; L% _2 L! |7 V# h(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t8 I' P4 j6 y: m2 A7 L
8 }4 z; e2 f! j! }6 v+ B! f u& Z4 N(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95
4 D! u4 \# i% e5 E: v& _- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
: J3 t) y/ _5 ^: j$ L3 _6 r我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 : y; c6 A( q& H/ X" r8 `! |
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
, U. U/ V: h. h1 }9 r3 B9 {+ X3 }( ]S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
% ]9 Q: M+ r; k- }- \# o
# S: `& O, z! C" H, d! RS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
2 b1 V, V, W; ^; D% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
7 g+ ^4 ^' Y- S2 L% p0 ~S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 2 C1 a- A* p% L; A
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
m6 b) [0 Z7 d: nS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \ o# ^9 [. y& l: c# R. n; C
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v7 K7 E7 i7 A' c$ v2 O5 n
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
" `8 b% Z( U9 W+ {7 @: R/ ~5 P# |7 B$ }% J9 w# K7 a& U
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
@7 V# m& E, j* m5 D
- H- Q1 | W/ P+ e# ~1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q% ^ v o; p$ l$ j2 |% R
! k' T8 }% }! O! k @7 s
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ( \" \% z: k/ Q$ W
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
d8 X" }: w% M; ~& V. R* F' S3 SS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
! U# ]' P+ y( A. G% |5 q8 ~8 ^# t; P9 s2 A1 ~( G9 u- m& _) a J& \
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
* o0 b/ d. w; N8 V4 M4 G5 Y
# T% V! \. p( _ e: e( _, DS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; + b) G, X* t9 J3 _! Q3 s/ Y$ h
+ l K8 N, I, v3 Z6 |* X' TS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
4 }; i7 p3 ]9 G" `- S: _/ O; m' V% T, u, P% O* H* E4 u% u9 @& c
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ' ~: h; O& t6 I9 L( |
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
. v1 e" U1 x; r' s- {S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 8 ]. ?, ~9 K b1 O
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~5 O0 K1 {4 X c
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
0 Y' K7 [+ h+ I: P, \& \( N) q* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
" F- S/ Q- z! D& V" g3 U; X, ?好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
2 c0 U l" h% H. ]) q( ], k9 L T& t1 O& Y( \8 q( l% O- U5 w; o
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 " A: }8 U. G/ f. b, _, Y
7 p, K( ?' `4 E" c6 x
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
& f" h7 |8 g+ g, V/ {) R) o) Q& V0 t; G/ ?$ c2 o
于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
) T" f! \* t" T" T9 ]3 ^9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {& w0 ]# I/ p; q% A% a
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M4 s# _! l- Q9 i+ U' B7 G5 {
+ D$ n) P# X# M
: F: t! \+ r9 {! vG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 - ~" T9 ?, r; `
. I% }( I: ?- xG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
6 U4 k0 q4 V# v- |; Q+ i" o) e$ C' \4 G$ w; i s
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
) ^1 \) e; v% I6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
5 u4 Z7 ]2 S3 S( A( K. q7 X: Y通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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