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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
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凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k! Q" c3 Q2 P# K7 w" ?

" U3 t3 \' C/ ~3 u/ s! Z1 [& _G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
, O) T  u2 X2 C* S0 K6 h7 W什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [
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既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!   
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+ U) O9 s% y* I' j+ H$ ~做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `( U: e& U: a% O5 W0 G* l" j! R
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(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n* v+ y! z6 z& R) z; r
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(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00    ! N$ G& r2 `+ B5 l$ x& V8 @4 ]

3 ^) ^3 X3 D) B, S. R' X' w(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t
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(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95    3 T! ]" H, w* Y6 q9 T! u" M8 P
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  y0 M" S- F' F7 u: G: L- `我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值    ; f, I" F, q! n' ?+ F* A' v
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* n6 ?/ Q; H- c# pS1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01      {  Z# s7 y) q7 f
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S2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00   
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S3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87    8 A( }& E4 {$ u, L& \& ~; \, F1 \
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5 ^9 ~. \4 {9 U, mS4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91   
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6 u% v2 a, k% J& E1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q$ B$ g3 F; |( E; m  x* Q
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90    6 ?0 K/ b# ^/ d0 o* j; P' D: p# g
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" m6 b+ G8 |& r0 I& f9 BS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T, ~8 _9 Z2 J6 K0 N; T5 g

# G* E8 ^2 C& G" T类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j5 m3 a: H3 J+ W9 s! d
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S1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;    5 v# w( v& R, [; S! w

) H- F" p: i3 x% O. |S2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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& x, F  l1 }' m, U+ }  ^S3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31   
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/ {5 p) u  T* g, I4 X1 A9 j! IS4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31   
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(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o; D9 J5 I0 a9 U5 b5 |, f+ a$ o, _
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: X+ \' b! q( u( {好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41    4 H9 R* m& }  {; t+ l+ b& T5 J: U
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75   
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9 M9 Z6 j3 X: u0 Z, UF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5   
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, _" }% D" q6 @! V" U) k于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?; V. H: |) T. i9 Z/ `
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M7 W1 t# T9 z6 y. @
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( f3 J! s9 ^/ i- t$ QG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56   
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- t: V3 \  y. T  ]2 \' uG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]' `( u: C+ _; r+ X% n4 c+ _
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \' J5 }  B9 R/ I" G, l. f# o7 \
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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