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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
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凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k) M& o3 s: R( {# e/ u1 b6 H5 @/ j7 n
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)5 a4 U- l2 n5 g% Y3 K. q
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [) T$ i$ C* V& J

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既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!    # ^& O# Z0 [+ q- h! E: M
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s2 d9 t, z3 V; p$ s- [  w' ]
做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `* v  @4 ~; t" V9 p# I8 ]
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(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n
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3 o# W3 O: r' o3 K& a1 z- B+ o! I(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00   
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5 f: I# D6 R7 k, S# S2 C) B(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t# j6 n$ W; ?, H7 A& E2 ~* O  V! w

% X* x3 W' F1 q$ a* T& x7 U. ?9 K' E(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95    ; s4 }. d& X; `) g
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4 Q! K+ c9 ~4 J我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值    # f. Q$ t  c0 q6 w
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S1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01   
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S2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00    ) Q! F. |8 N6 [8 A2 F9 U
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2 |+ v6 |! m' k0 |: SS3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87   
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S4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \: |$ U, U  ^3 {4 v# h, J
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$ b; u% ]1 }: n1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91   
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) \! z' h1 N7 s1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l- M8 y; Z6 |) e, @; M4 Z* K+ J: ^- W

+ g0 `! g+ h# t" L# j1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q' X' [. h( L' m5 `

. E# U% x/ g: c8 W( J% i1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90    ( O1 L8 }/ W* s. n* n* ]+ z
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( Z/ S# K3 P4 I+ L  eS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T) e. B9 S# A4 ~1 i) X1 f4 E7 I
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类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j
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$ J+ o9 B3 m- r, V( F. m( IS1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;    5 g$ T" ]$ j' y3 a. b
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S2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s1 [* X; t( N* G
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; {7 p5 b3 P1 o1 ]% eS3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31   
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S4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31    5 x7 g# h% U  P% B: o9 w7 o
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(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41   
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- b, U; H7 B/ f* @8 A3 bB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75   
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$ U! \; s0 a4 T! c) M& }F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5   
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于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?' A9 T0 S% H8 s+ Y0 i
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* `/ F& o2 A1 c2 X) e" r2 qG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
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G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56   
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]1 Y. }' e' j. V, N% y. i1 F
. H7 V" `1 _7 A# D- m1 B" S+ ?
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \2 ^! x5 ?  k- n6 Z
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: K8 H. g7 u0 D) c3 L3 h/ }2 z通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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