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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
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凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k3 P, q$ C* c7 Q8 Z
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G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
" `2 k2 c+ C; y% e什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [
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既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!    8 w; K, l3 u3 ?% j6 n# X2 u5 X
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0 f" S# i4 v7 D1 k做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `! X: B7 f# L9 n
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(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n
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(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00   
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' i; L% _2 L! |7 V# h(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t8 I' P4 j6 y: m2 A7 L

8 }4 z; e2 f! j! }6 v+ B! f  u& Z4 N(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95   
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: J3 t) y/ _5 ^: j$ L3 _6 r我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值    : y; c6 A( q& H/ X" r8 `! |
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, U. U/ V: h. h1 }9 r3 B9 {+ X3 }( ]S1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01   
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# S: `& O, z! C" H, d! RS2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00   
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7 g+ ^4 ^' Y- S2 L% p0 ~S3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87    2 C1 a- A* p% L; A
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  m6 b) [0 Z7 d: nS4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \  o# ^9 [. y& l: c# R. n; C
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91   
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l
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- H- Q1 |  W/ P+ e# ~1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q% ^  v  o; p$ l$ j2 |% R
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90    ( \" \% z: k/ Q$ W
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  d8 X" }: w% M; ~& V. R* F' S3 SS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T
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类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j
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# T% V! \. p( _  e: e( _, DS1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;    + b) G, X* t9 J3 _! Q3 s/ Y$ h

+ l  K8 N, I, v3 Z6 |* X' TS2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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S3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31    ' ~: h; O& t6 I9 L( |
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. v1 e" U1 x; r' s- {S4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31    8 ]. ?, ~9 K  b1 O
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(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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" F- S/ Q- z! D& V" g3 U; X, ?好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41   
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75    " A: }8 U. G/ f. b, _, Y
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5   
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于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M4 s# _! l- Q9 i+ U' B7 G5 {
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: F: t! \+ r9 {! vG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56    - ~" T9 ?, r; `

. I% }( I: ?- xG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
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当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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5 u4 Z7 ]2 S3 S( A( K. q7 X: Y通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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