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[lastpost] => 2778812 比特币大幅回调及市场情绪转变：杠杆清算是短期走势的晴雨表（转） 1762257656 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币（BTC）被低估还是疲软？数据显示其与标普500指数的相关性明显减弱（转）
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- 比特币与标普500指数和黄金的相关性已中断3个月。
- 比特币价格向标普500指数靠拢表明其估值偏低，因为这种领先的加密货币展现出上涨潜力。.* k5 n" l2 G& d7 ]7 ~2 V
来自链上数据平台Santiment的最新数据显示，比特币（BTC）与标准普尔500指数之间的相关性明显下降。根据这些数据，比特币可能被低估，一些市场参与者甚至认为比特币价格疲软。 比特币打破与标普500指数的相关性在一篇 X 帖子中，Santiment[url=]突出显示[/url]比特币已经打破了与标普500指数和黄金的历史相关性。过去三个月，比特币的走势与这些基准资产截然相反。 然而，Santiment 认为，这种与历史模式的突破可能预示着比特币的买入机会。 Santiment 分享了一张图表，显示标普 500 指数上涨了 7%，而[url=]金子[/url]自 8 月 11 日以来，也上涨了 21%。然而，同期比特币下跌了 15%。 比特币以其极高的波动性而闻名，在不同的时间框架内价格波动幅度都非常明显。这种领先的加密资产在2022年暴跌超过64%，随后在2023年反弹了160%。这种波动性对加密货币交易者来说极具挑战性。 另一方面，标准普尔500指数表现更为稳定，是美国经济的基准。  比特币、黄金和标普500指数的相关性 | 来源：Santiment尽管如此，从2020年末到2025年中期，比特币与标准普尔500指数仍呈现出很强的正相关性。这意味着比特币经常会放大股市的波动，在牛市中上涨得更快，在熊市中下跌得更厉害。 推动这一趋势的因素包括机构采纳以及美联储加息和地缘ZZ紧张局势等宏观事件。 截至发稿时，BTC价格交易价格为104,664.37 美元， 向上0.5%24小时内。 9 u$ v+ H+ g/ v. R
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" s& h; F6 r" N) m5 O/ k4 }! @6 R0 J6 P受ETF资金流出等因素的影响，比特币与标普500指数的相关性在第三季度开始下降，并延续至第四季度。在之前的文章中，我们[url=]讨论[/url]比特币下跌了 5.9%，而同期标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 0.4%。 比特币是被低估了还是价值疲软？因此，三个月的相关性中断表明，比特币的表现逊于标普500指数，因为投资者更青睐稳定和增长型资产。这也意味着比特币的价格走势在很大程度上独立于传统市场。 然而，Santiment认为，如果比特币的历史走势与股票市场一致，那么它目前落后于标普500指数则表明其被低估。这家数据分析平台认为，这种相关性的断裂并非由于比特币疲软，而是加密货币领域特有的不利因素所致。 如果比特币普及率不断提高以及 2025-2026 年可能出现的牛市周期等基本面因素持续存在，一旦市场情绪转变，比特币价格可能会迎头赶上。 此外，比特币与股票市场长达三个月的脱钩可能预示着比特币正逐渐成为一种独立的资产，与股票市场的关联度降低。因此，投资者可能会将其视为逢低买入的良机，最终推高比特币的价格。 与此同时，币安交易所报告称比特币提现交易量激增。[url=]提及[/url]在我们之前的简报中，[激增]表明鲸鱼和机构投资者重新开始囤积资金，而不是短期交易者。 这[url=]比特币巨鲸[/url]机构投资者的囤积行为表明他们对未来价格上涨充满信心。这可能有助于提振散户对领先币种的信心。
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