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威廉、立博的2.20 3.20 2.80、2.50 3.20 2.50平衡理论4 p6 X- w% _: Y7 f/ A2 v: L
在立博和威廉希尔的赔率里面有一些平衡搭配,之所以认为他是平衡的,就是因为庄家在胜负上已经做出极限的规避手法,比如2.50 3.20 2.50、2.20 3.20 2.80等等,之所以说这两个是常规平衡手法其实不难理解:2.50 3.20 2.50胜负概率一致,庄家认为这个对阵是平衡的,由其可以衍生出2.40 3.20 2.60、2.37 3.20 2.60、2.50 2.90 2.62等等变化。2.20 3.20 2.80之所以是平衡的是因为博彩公司在风险规避上已到一个极限,这是一种对阵能够开出的极限,再往前进就是2.15 3.20 2.90,但0.15+0.90=1.05超过1了,庄家已经是打破平衡了,如果优势再大一点就是2.10 3.20 3.00或者2.00 3.20 3.20,胜负已经开始超过整数1。说到这里大家不难理解两种平衡模式的根本在于0.5+0.5=1、0.2+0.8=1,威廉立博开出如此组合的时候是认为这种对阵是平衡的,换句话说玩家注码应该是均衡的,遇到这种组合时我们可以理解为庄家对本场比赛并没有特别的倾向,只是常规的平衡玩家注码,硬要从赔率中间分析出庄家倾向那边并不适宜。当然如何结合球队基本面我们有时候也能够分析出2.50或者是2.20开低了还是开高了,从而得到一个正确的和结果同步的结论,但这不能认为庄家的态度也是如此,只能说庄家估计的平衡注码中你是选择正确的一项,如此而已。5 c) S6 h8 L: q
但很多时候庄家并未这样开盘,我们很少看到立博威廉开出2.50 3.20 2.50或者2.20 3.20 2.80的平衡组合,相反还经常会出现2.70 3.30 2.20、2.62 2.90 2.50等衍生组合,从上面的平衡情况看,胜负加起来的和值已经不是1,也就是说这些组合打破了平衡,我们是否由此认为立博威廉此时对结果的把握程度已经很高了,持有这种想法的读者有大部分已经是相当高段的玩家了。这种打破平衡的变种赔率就好比我经常举例说的爬山,一段平缓的坡爬起来很舒适,但同样的落差,坡中间的弧度不同会让爬山者产生爬山的难易程度不同,相信这个不难理解。同样的一段平路,中间认为的挖坑或者隆包都会影响你走路的,而就博彩的角度上讲这就是博彩公司的平赔手法。当然博彩公司在平赔为3.20的基础上作出另外一些看起来平衡的变化,比如2.40 3.20 2.60、2.75 3.20 2.25,胜负加起来也是1,平赔3.20是暧昧的,为什么是3.20,这里不具体谈,我说过博彩有时候就是一门心理学,高低的定位本身就很暧昧,平赔的高低不同联赛的反应不同。 这里就举君王临天下昨日分析的一个帖子德国杯决赛勒沃0-1不莱梅,立博威廉就采取了极限平衡变种的手法:; o+ K0 w% I3 {% @3 \6 m
平均赔率 2.85 3.20 2.313 y! J, F1 _$ X& a# f7 ^8 V
立博国际 2.75 3.20 2.25" l/ z; S D$ ] k+ h w1 {
威廉希尔 2.75 3.20 2.25
. D) l' w$ K9 j( H 从两家公司的赔率情况看立博先开,和平均赔率对比不难发现立博是倾向胜负的,威廉希尔并没有做出任何调整,赔率和立博完全一致,即使这样我们还不能分析出3或者0哪个更多一些。但两家公司的赔率都是在2.20 3.20 2.80基础上的变种,两家公司将这种平衡倒置,客胜2.20+0.05,主胜2.80-0.05,如此调整就可以看出味道了,由于不莱梅属于客场位(有时候中立场的决赛形势通过抽签决定穿主客场球衣,虽然对阵按照习惯的主客场,但还是中立场,双方立场是对等的,但在玩家心目中却并不这样),刚才我们说过2.80 3.20 2.20是平衡的,那么客胜增加0.05有增压的作用,玩家看到这个客胜增加0.05就能感到客胜实现的难度,而主胜降低0.05同样可以起到减压的作用,变化虽然细微,平赔又是暧昧的,不足以将注码赶向任何一方,即使这样博彩公司希望收到主队的注码的心理仍然是可以揣摩的,最后不莱梅赢球也是意料之中。! |1 v$ O9 m8 t: g" L
08-09赛季法甲最后一轮南特 2-1 欧塞尔,庄家也采取平衡手法变种。2 Z1 L4 j" @# B+ B- {
立博国际 2.50 3.20 2.502 G7 Y# w$ w# L, D
威廉希尔 2.62 2.90 2.50) q0 O& @, Y, t, Z; V/ x
基本面南特已经提前降级,欧塞尔无所欲求但联赛6连胜状态极佳,往绩主队4胜9平8负处于下风。立博国际开出平衡组合,但威廉希尔明显打破这种平衡,平赔只有2.90,相应客胜提高至2.62,如此一调整,客队不败感呼之欲出,威廉采取平赔手法将一个势均力敌的天平明显压向欧塞尔,最后南特取胜也在威廉意料之中。 |
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