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[虚拟币交流]
比特币跌至 9.3 万美元，引发剧烈波动和“极度恐慌”：接下来会发生什么？（转）
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本周加密货币市场整体下跌比特币周末期间跌至93,029美元的低点，引发了……清算周日成交额接近 5.79 亿美元。* ?( Q6 o6 ` z, w
: H0 e* {/ E7 [3 J# V' p* _# x' y比特币周一早盘收复失地，目前交易价格为95,453美元，当日下跌0.1%。CoinGecko 数据.6 R, Z6 h3 ~7 U
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周末的暴跌形成了一个广为流传的看跌卖出信号，称为“死亡交叉”。当50日均线向下穿过200日均线时，就会形成死亡交叉。交易和技术分析界普遍认为，死亡交叉是牛市和熊市的分界线。# ]7 d) `: a- ^" W! C
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CEX.IO 的零碎交易主管 Yaroslav Patsira 表示：“比特币下跌主要是由于不确定性造成的。”解密他解释说，尽管美国ZF决定重新开放经济，但由于“几份关键的经济报告尚未发布”，市场仍然处于盲目状态。
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帕齐拉补充说：“目前还不清楚美联储在12月份会采取什么行动，市场对降息的预期已经大幅下降。”
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此次回调已将市场情绪推至“极度恐慌”状态。加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数这表明，在比特币持续下跌的趋势下，投资者感到恐慌，比特币价格已从本周高点 106,562 美元下跌了 10%。! \* L' Y1 ~# ~0 {" c
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预测市场无数恐惧与贪婪永续情绪市场略微偏空，显示出51/49 的票数倾向于恐惧。.: A, h5 a5 [6 t
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（免责声明：Myriad 归……所有）解密母公司 Dastan）& j/ y4 ?( c) a5 P. p4 ?# x* t: g
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Synfutures首席执行官兼联合创始人瑞秋·林表示：“极度恐惧是一种行为信号。”解密“投资者目前风险规避情绪高涨，这通常会导致流动性紧缩和短期波动性加剧。”
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4 j( }. H: c$ ]- y2 L( |$ \' v林补充说，情绪指标显示了我们在链上看到的情况，并强调了“ETF需求疲软、已实现抛售增加以及杠杆头寸快速清算”。4 U! s6 e5 Z; O; }( X9 L
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这种悲观情绪也反映在Myriad的预测中，该预测认为比特币在达到115,000美元之前跌至85,000美元的概率为[此处原文缺失]。向上滚动自周六以来，该比例从 43% 上升至 55%。8 u2 h1 P- ]$ e
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比特币的下一步发展方向是什么？
& N" i1 f/ W/ f1 ~4 K* `' e; y专家指出，比特币将经历一段波动加剧和盘整的时期，其近期走势很大程度上取决于宏观经济数据和机构资金流动。
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“停摆结束应该能缓解一些流动性压力；这对市场有利，但似乎不会改变游戏规则，”帕齐拉强调说。
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他指出，虽然激进的抛售可能正在放缓，“但比特币可能需要一段时间进行盘整，然后才会出现趋势转变。”
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& g" y. v0 O5 l0 d& S林补充道：“如果美国宏观经济数据（通胀/就业）降低了12月降息的可能性，包括比特币在内的风险资产可能会继续承压。” 相反，她指出，“任何ETF资金流入的切实加速或更明确的监管成果都可能重新刺激需求。”3 D" h3 D2 e8 W& K$ V. B8 ?
' F: h2 c8 `( Y& ZBitget首席分析师Ryan Lee表示：“在当前环境下……交易员应保持谨慎。”解密他指出，系统性风险依然存在，而且“避险情绪”可能会持续下去，预计比特币短期内将在 9 万美元至 11 万美元之间交易。
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市场普遍认为应采取“观望”策略。投资者应密切关注ETF资金流动数据和链上抛售指标等关键信号，因为市场正在寻找能够突破当前调整阶段的明确催化剂。8 ]% J o6 Y8 X8 B% X8 j* j
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这波回调看着吓人，但比特币这尿性跌完肯定还得蹦跶起来 |
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