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21点算牌与当日冲销类似,坐在赌桌等机会,算到好牌下大注。
' X& R8 c5 g- B, t. I; D& }: h算牌时将牌分成小牌(2-6)及大牌(10JQKA),789不重要不算。自第一手自0开始看到小牌加1大牌减1。
8 G. x* @! I3 H& H, t7 S7 R依剩馀副数调整真数供下注及打牌参考。0 {% N) k9 o( e  ~* i! x' w
假设你面对6副牌基本输率0.25%赌桌,算到真1平均赢DC0.25%,应该下多少钱?下几手?每一真1算牌客平均多赢0.5%,真2赢0.75%,真3+1.25%。+ d, z3 F/ b' c! K: V- W
真数愈高表示看到小牌多剩下大牌多庄家(必须补到17点)易爆,大牌愈多算牌客应少加牌、多投降、多赌倍、多分牌。, h6 ^1 h3 w( j( I, z
例如基本策略12 versus 庄3加牌,真2以上时不加。打多大打几门依赌本,风险偏好及同桌门数而不同。- R8 Y" Q+ ~0 }  v( y3 s
假设使用50万美元,依半凯利下注……面对1%获利机会下1/2%的赌本,赌本加倍前输光的风险约1.8%(平均98.2%可以成功把赌本加倍)。* I( F; G6 C( q$ l
玩21点时下注后还会分牌及赌倍使下注增加,因此2%收益率不应下1%赌本,而是1%的76%……0.76%。. B7 U- ^! F0 X0 }; [+ {1 e
如果只下一门0.76%但下二门风险分散总下注额可以增加46%……下一门0.76%,下二门二门各0.56%合计1.12%,下三门总下注额可以增加71%!下三门各0.43%,合计1.3%。8 y- h6 i- e- V7 I
把500,000赌本代入,各种情形之下注额如下:
% D' Q8 R( [1 k) P下一门 下二门合计 下三门合计
2 K$ K$ x$ d* e5 L/ t真1 500 700 800
, N! y; s. P' f, [真2 1400 2100 24008 g7 z3 T# W4 Q# W3 L
真3 2400 3500 4100+ @5 c& `, M4 [, z3 R7 \  F
真4 3300 4900 5700: x" C. S- y, u) H
真5 4300 6200 7300/ {2 g, f$ K% e
真6 5200 7600 89006 _8 ]" X- O! E+ e( l: }* o/ E
真7 6200 9000 10,6004 @1 ]# V9 M) d& @8 ?" n8 O: j
如果有选择,好牌时应该下几门?3 s: ]$ L; Q) l" W0 b7 Y
Don Schleisinger在《Blackjack Attack》一书中分析如下:4 Y* U: F+ s! f6 a
假设你打7位赌桌,单独打,同桌有另一人,另二人,另三人,另四人,你打几门最好?假设顶注500元一人下一门100次约540张牌(平均一轮一位用2.7张牌),下二门只能下67次(540÷8.1)下三门下50次(540÷10.8)则风险相同下(一门下500元风险与二门共下730元及三门共下855元风险相同)下一门总下注额最高:
. E8 z& p3 ~2 k) M一人打 下注次数 总下注额- T/ \, \  g6 c' |, ?; H
下一门 100 50,000*
; J5 D& q/ L. s" O* a6 V下二门 67 48,910
: {8 w" M  A6 l9 z$ j6 U+ ~; I下三门 50 42,750; ~# c6 s& ~/ H$ P, r
*即风险相同下下一门总下注额最高(获利最高)。
& n) M; \% U/ \: ~( \' z若同桌有另一人下一门:* P# ?& C2 Y7 a) s2 A
二人打 下注次数 总下注额" Z' {% F6 }( o) J
你下一门 67 33,520
' ~- I. b( i7 T; p3 e) x! C你下二门 50 36,500*8 @8 V+ d0 ]; a' u( z: a
你下三门 40 34,200
4 X8 ?, v. n$ r  i0 b' x*即下二门总获利最高。; S4 }1 `) d& O% w5 g
若同桌有人下二门:
; H* `  B3 }) {" s/ e# ^% [三人打 下注次数 总下注额
: @3 a; l) v( X* w7 e! b6 S你下一门 50 25,000# _5 M2 q! c+ b0 x! C! ?8 P3 y' ~
你下二门 40 29,200*. t0 G) [. Z3 H* R. D0 Y
你下三门 33 28,215
! s- `- O! ?& }0 v1 {*也是下二门总获利最高。1 A* A2 ~6 j. [, J
若同桌有人下三门:
4 V( y. w4 P4 R四人打 下注次数 总下注额$ n/ q" Q) L3 I6 i4 B9 Z( C1 \  h
你下一门 40 20,000# f( ~# b4 F& B6 y! P! f
你下二门 33 24,090
0 r9 _0 _; C+ w* q/ x+ w  t2 M你下三门 29 24,795*) i: x" s6 \) ]5 b6 l
*下三门好。
. P; F. S( W/ x8 r. v& [5 \6 ~五人打 下注次数 总下注额, h1 c/ L% y4 e" R, J9 @
你下一门 33 16,5201 ~5 ?/ u4 A2 V" p# T
你下二门 29 21,170
" }3 j& P" Z7 h% l你下三门 25 21,375*" E$ q" _- `) ?, G
*下三门好。- F, }/ N3 h) i( \
综合而言,在上限以内时,一人打打一门,二人打打二门,三人打打二门,四人及五人打打三门,但若仔细看其实一律打二门与最适打差得有限。如一人打时只差2%(50,000与48,910比),四人打差3%,五人打差1%因此好牌时一律打二门无妨。
7 J4 H9 `: Q9 d0 `注意「上限以内」为前提。
# W! w* ~7 M/ F$ k* W如果上限为500,好牌应下1000,则即使只一人打也应打二门甚至三门,又最后一回不必省牌多打几门无妨。
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{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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