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[体育菠菜心得方法] 凯利指数的计算及在足彩中的运用
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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
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凯利指数的计算方法:    ( O1 m2 a  L3 d; F& D  k2 Z% i! V& ?8 m, G

8 }( N9 T' J& ?4 P# W7 Y# d0 F, I$ nG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
5 u. o4 ?# {! c* }什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系?  H% P+ \' B9 l  U8 T. [
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; p8 _/ a/ b, ]% s- W5 H既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!    6 \( B* m; e" p0 A4 G1 t' H
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做下算术了:    2 i( y$ \  W: ~: {8 \" `+ j2 E! i( g4 r  W6 |/ ]# A  d$ T
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. b; s9 B  s! N" h- D1 O' u(1)SSP:    2.22    3.15    3.01    : `4 u/ N9 a2 y  W3 e8 }9 n! ?/ y! v* s3 w5 z

) u9 w3 B9 f5 `: C2 s) \2 J(2)立博:    2.10    3.25    3.00    8 J- y. V2 L1 \; K8 a) t% t
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(3)威廉:    2.20    3.10    2.87    : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [  t2 X: B4 i, L' G7 A' O% C
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(4)易胜博:2.25    3.10    2.95   
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6 c7 J  c" p; a  `2 N我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值   
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- L/ }' H* S8 t0 ~S1=2.22    B1=3.15    F1=3.01    8 N# n/ z% t6 P( e0 v% i

7 W$ U% s; T7 JS2=2.10    B2=3.25    F2=3.00    # |  b0 s6 j$ e; v
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S3=2.20    B3=3.10    F3=2.87   
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S4=2.25    B14=3.10    F4=2.95    ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y  G+ \& I3 F( s6 u1 n( E9 w5 F. I8 B3 f
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! x( @% A/ m: C; G4 `1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01    =>    r1=0.91    9 w1 e7 o" ^, e5 y# X2 n

$ v, N* k7 L" Z8 n2 ^) K9 B6 Q  H# X9 B: e1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00    =>    r2=0.90    # t0 ?( P  e* X% l
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87    =>    r3=0.89    % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
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$ S1 J5 F8 p' M. ~7 M1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95    =>    r4=0.90   
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/ N+ o; i: n! dS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41    : W# q# m$ g# T
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类似的计算后,于是:    # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M  j
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S1'=41    B1'=29    F1'=30;    : x3 w) ]; _# X2 ^- r5 r
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S2'=43    B2'=28    F2'=30    3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s* m7 ], B+ J% Y" d* K% a5 y
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& `: i4 U4 o( q4 ^S3'=40    B3'=29    F3'=31   
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S4'=40    B4'=29    F4'=31    $ p4 n- Q% W& d
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(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了)    8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o# U  C. p9 T- L9 k) Y: V
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% ]8 h3 r8 x" V$ t! b/ u好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41    ) F+ q3 b6 C2 B, r4 y/ \
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& ?5 @0 r0 `9 b' O9 e3 `/ W, QB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75    % A; k9 T  N5 i! ]2 W; ?! i- _
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5   
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于是:    / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P  E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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1 d4 C5 _6 U1 i7 sG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02    ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
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2 y! x( H9 U# _* C  M3 B4 H9 w' wG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56   
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8    2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]  P) F& H/ o/ f7 K4 z6 C

4 |& k+ r1 T1 |4 b$ _; Q- P  l" ]当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。    好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。    + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。
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进来学习一下
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这个太深奥了,看不懂
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这么高深 概率论研究的很好啊
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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
未有绑定记录
 


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