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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
- @8 p* c" b) J8 Z1 X9 z* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c1 H7 {/ {& d& A% k, E: {5 H
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
3 h: T5 O% E- ?; s% a2 C, H' Y5 ~/ x/ |, |6 i
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
& v$ d$ B9 J' F h" B什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [" s O( w$ [2 P) E
: g- l0 f, o3 C% ~
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
4 k2 D9 r* {' K& a# ~2 |! ~既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 5 d @* w- f# w: B( n' u: J' ~- [
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
% a& U+ S$ v. e5 \( j做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `0 X, ^& Q$ E |5 D3 R! W
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d2 }; h. N/ q( r( E: K7 s6 L9 d+ }
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
5 o* r8 {! e$ y3 h5 v# r2 \% ]: }. n6 D- m/ |9 D
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
- m+ @5 ~2 J/ H- _- k. u
5 M+ }2 S6 K) v1 E" S% @! P% P(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t8 L: z8 M/ v0 O5 ^3 O
; r' b- ?* X, m
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
6 U& g9 C2 O8 E$ P) l1 k! Q6 m- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _7 k) `6 c5 D, x
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 , f, t& b! \- t
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c# B9 W& [' F0 K; C7 [ D
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 . s6 Y+ X8 q# r
; e6 O& y+ I3 G0 ] _ ~ C- ?
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 $ c! I7 I& G% K$ H9 D
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s* D5 M& y# P$ `6 g- G" u
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
& K4 W2 m* w: B3 i9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j# M: i [% A0 x
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \, }$ u* u) ^8 o, x0 `- h
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v6 U, E5 B9 P" `9 Q- f
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 # p% Z4 w& n* u5 x" A
! c. Q5 r; d" t& f2 H' O
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
" @# a$ F( r) y5 s3 _
* B1 e9 ^+ A f' l$ }" O1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
" y/ c+ Q: w+ l+ q
4 X. O* F* l8 U+ \' O) Y1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
3 m3 x0 X# ]' u8 M: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r9 j: V- g% @- G; f: L
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
1 z& S% T" U( I8 l2 o
+ p; U4 t" ?* ?类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
5 f0 U8 Q- D1 ]+ Q0 M! w6 J* F
6 M4 n( \$ a% `$ z, p% aS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
( j+ i0 b$ D$ v! R9 D
* n4 F5 W$ H, D$ ~) n+ wS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
. W% e" [; b+ O/ @9 C0 w/ n$ L; m' V% T, u, P% O
- {) [. R8 a& q6 hS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
4 \+ U& x% p$ v: Q& \- l6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a+ m2 m, Q9 b& W8 t' ~8 P
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 & ~3 j3 r6 n. q$ c6 ^& Z3 V
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
4 q) D4 z( I' `) o9 U, s; Q3 @(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
/ d* }* m' n, n' n" E* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
% [- a; a+ v4 B3 s* R好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 4 r% M' Y* b p1 g2 l' Q
) q( ], k9 L T& t- S' ^" @' o* a4 a/ Y: L6 w: Z
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ; l7 Z( _/ e' }+ x% J# N5 w
, I4 y# k7 |1 }1 t; x- SF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
. Z7 g, V6 N9 X' e, Y) j- ^
. H5 q; C. ~, O' b8 s于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?) t' Q; s2 o0 r
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
9 s+ R$ _+ o% F/ S2 M, DG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M4 U8 L9 _. K. ]+ c
+ D$ n) P# X# M! u4 V9 J C& ?6 x
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 - ~( O8 M4 B- c& Q$ L, |
3 J0 P; K& E1 R! E S' M7 b# }G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]3 d* q; R8 S, a) J& M) G
0 ?7 W( y: y# N$ h" W当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
6 p5 y+ M4 \' z/ J" r" w+ a6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
. a' m2 A, x/ }& T' [; q通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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