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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
- _3 I* f: y; w7 B8 Q! ?' l1 ]* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c1 r7 C! T( Z/ j' ]# x+ _
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
: E# @1 s) ]# a1 {8 D
Q/ C/ m8 j/ }G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)# Q- @ t. G( Z4 d' W6 F5 @: x
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
$ ^8 C1 H) Q2 g" W0 N/ m6 s6 _
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! Q& V$ w& \, Z2 L" I, |既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
) N" O. z5 I* F: \% g# B# _/ p" Y# J7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
- A! Z6 t; x- B( F6 [- [4 G做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `) U4 i6 o$ `" r& @$ Q
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d5 x1 s: R9 m" {: U: [
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
) q- J8 |9 ]& \0 ^" F' V1 H
+ Q1 e3 t$ l. s0 U, u1 `( I(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 , m# L, ]7 S/ V: e# I8 t6 U
7 N1 ? J+ v& A5 e(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t0 c3 b- c2 _7 I: W$ n% S! Q
7 w" [: t. w( a( x(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
; F& e& h: L% A- x0 \" ~- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
8 L, }, K J j2 `我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
7 T1 Z5 r( S6 i% c7 {5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c' f9 t- E; B& e2 a0 J
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
, m, f- q" d% k5 L6 Y/ [3 V; X7 V. B3 R% D1 x* C2 A
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 6 z) t: k5 e' g3 v- T
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
; f" Y' W2 k5 C2 DS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 9 ]$ Q% j5 H1 Y H; e3 ?2 \/ ~
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
3 I9 P* @1 e3 J# ^. J* i+ `S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \1 V. [6 X+ Z9 M0 T, h* n- I, |9 S
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v- [0 Y; t/ o% C1 b/ W7 s; t0 y; }7 T
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 " \- U5 S( N9 `- Z" H9 X5 T, w
6 t$ E: O# ?8 S, p
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
+ [! b% n4 l; _/ p9 w& W% F" D: _1 B( s' R
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q/ h- c5 G$ U/ G# J% `& e# M7 d2 u
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
- F! M8 |6 W6 B/ H1 t: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r: J0 x) V% Y( d8 r$ I: b
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T" {7 [0 }* y2 W
7 e! n; }2 @6 _ v; d& R6 ?" d
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
$ W+ b/ j6 |/ `# X _0 V+ v& z1 m! ]: z5 u' Q/ M4 ]$ M
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 9 A4 ~. P* _8 v& n: L% T# v% W
4 v/ ~, D0 R6 d! a& v, V! I
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s. A# |0 _2 M2 o* H, P4 Y9 |' i
; m' V% T, u, P% O
/ |- x G* F5 J+ _* J* t) RS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ' l1 c6 a9 \- s2 K0 ]6 b5 c2 J
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a7 a/ X( i8 Q$ U, x& @( n3 P8 C
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 7 t4 ~( V- Q6 V- R- |
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
, x# Z( F' I6 x$ [0 O" f(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
. _* B! U t! t. `# O* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
3 m0 _ w+ h- ~( d' Y好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
) R9 H7 p1 ^7 e# S: h) q( ], k9 L T& t( [0 h: H. t% o; S# D1 P/ F+ h
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 9 o: T! l7 J( w3 D5 z2 g: }* l9 [9 d
4 Y ?: G% s) e T. L" E5 ~F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 o0 |' N; ^9 g7 y; g4 s7 M
7 X) I9 d, C* n& y3 d于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
6 p/ Q1 m! j' H3 }6 ^4 v* o9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
' M7 w! C$ ?5 G$ PG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
4 c' L3 o O' g& U' U- Z+ D$ n) P# X# M
0 J( r" @& T! R$ [9 p7 u" o) vG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 $ |# H: N, e; w4 h
2 s) A6 t0 T- ^ l' l' _& L& Z
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]( V+ Y/ K6 A" j2 ~" g
/ ?1 h" {$ p, i) m$ }, f& S, E x
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \. |, ~% R9 n; F. Z7 x) c+ t6 F
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i& p& I, q9 G4 j. _
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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