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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
5 I+ X( P( t: z1 a( h) W* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c/ {# M }9 ?3 `
凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
' v. p+ F1 N( g( r. N/ d J4 a2 J& m7 w$ e5 L; H
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)0 U' `3 d z9 c( b
什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [+ r- p6 i8 a% x9 n9 l0 l8 B1 Z7 k" x
7 [! E9 s% s# g) |
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
2 i1 c# a" Y; Z1 ^4 p# H4 H既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
% O! T: P9 F9 M7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s- Y7 a# f; `" r# D
做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `( j+ Q8 F# U! c' v9 N) j
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d } u0 F. i( q! |
(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n% [% I3 U% ]8 Z, V) k
6 m: p# T, C( U2 B6 H" N
(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00
4 M8 F9 R7 m* g3 [1 w
, y( k8 j) x3 Y4 r. k. s4 r(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
1 u' ]3 W0 d4 |: ]- g( n p) I
8 f% \& n( m3 k, Q! z2 j4 L(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 + c6 W& |( X7 |3 i* U# Y
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
, l; f' W. j7 w8 v1 e我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
@$ V* N) l; g8 V; y( \9 Z5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
5 U( A9 J" l- Y7 n' g$ |S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
9 c7 U7 C4 _; S- J+ ^) ?6 j* S) R( z2 P8 R: f& x
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
7 t' u3 u+ `9 y% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s5 a# b1 Q/ r2 F: E, T) l0 G- Z
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
1 n0 t* [9 O, v2 R- l9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j9 X8 C" s1 D0 l G5 b
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
( t1 d& l3 S6 |4 [! j$ e8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v5 x% _/ K7 l# u& c
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 3 T6 G: O) z m
, M% m/ H# U4 c+ h1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q! S: F% I! \5 F3 L4 ^" ^2 k
. P0 ]2 N) E. `. d0 v1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 - v7 m$ Q) S0 O7 k w' N+ E
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
6 }( J% n7 }/ f* u4 DS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
# _( _* j F; I5 `/ \6 c; l% y# C+ z M; u2 h! X; i' V6 _
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
2 t# a6 k) ]& _) X' |% J# A% l4 {$ y* l% C& @: f: {- J, h
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; + l8 C' y3 z- K/ D
- i V0 I# Q, W/ IS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s6 j0 J' \2 p: b
; m' V% T, u, P% O" X: D3 Q! I; D0 Y# j9 d! \& \
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
/ z$ c" {9 I0 G& r# L: D! p6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a9 ~3 Z z# T: E, Z M6 u; r" M6 `
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
. V' x+ a% M6 s0 A: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~6 c' K0 P: d- T* D# V
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o6 _' c1 q. e2 o
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0 A- t* D- l. n" B( o好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
2 y" a7 V- F+ V7 z( g+ H5 V$ Y) q( ], k9 L T& t
, m# i$ z1 L e$ r- s eB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
( X7 o9 b( U2 H7 A- X! Q, ^
' R% B( {4 e+ C+ J% ~ Q' ?) L$ dF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 , l( t) `9 \$ L3 z e: G
2 B& N- k& f! ^7 ?) |于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
3 Q" t: B2 r% W1 K: Z) s9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {" E( L5 B9 h6 Q% x- a; F0 T
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M& P% Y! D9 y7 ^; t5 i
+ D$ n) P# X# M$ n' D" R6 {" h/ |
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
4 v' ^, J8 M4 J; d+ I% Z: H4 ^0 v: ~
9 M' D6 d6 a6 n. e, H2 P: [. |: CG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ] x, ~% k8 y$ o# P& z( h. \
/ O7 ]& }' G$ H: }# Y
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
4 Y9 H- y7 w) M) |6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
4 v$ t7 l' z" P5 R# D! R2 y' p通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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