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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑! n3 {& v8 H% Z% u; U
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6 y6 O% }# J \5 T6 x) O* Q x4 K5 q凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
( x7 W- B0 i' i3 q: o; H
/ I( f' X! S7 n; M& ZG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
2 f {! L" J# u6 t! [什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
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既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 9 J8 I6 Z3 m' s
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
' f1 ^( s! U+ f% p做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `8 l& y- z* Q5 g6 @
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
2 {$ ?7 f; s0 ^% N6 E$ ^4 B(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n& A& O, N$ n) ^ Y
9 G J) C& A' w5 q f; a0 y
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
( C3 @( x2 ^ D, a( |8 i0 |; N8 z- W$ p K _3 ?2 T
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
$ C0 {: U2 m9 ^; Z9 m( V+ J1 ^, }. z
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 ' u) p, I$ T2 q* q& m7 U7 ?4 [
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
' N1 `) F4 `6 ?. J2 a我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ) E- M- M* u* o! w F" n! v
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c1 _3 w" H9 ^# H4 \
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
- `" l0 T( H" f- [. m. E
: a, i2 Y& B) U* |S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
6 `7 g+ \9 l: j& N$ v. o% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
9 W1 d: Y) u8 j. X: \S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 2 R& X9 B5 W: s" s8 ~* D
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j c4 l' e5 f/ t, D- P) s% d; L5 @
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \( x- B) s/ _0 w" z( o( w% B
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
2 e. C9 Q' R7 s6 K( |# }! q+ h1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
4 p- Q" \9 o1 e5 y$ {& A$ g5 ?4 ?, L; u6 T7 G' ^" {
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l; v" m9 R) c. p- w
* O/ q% H/ j! \' ?1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q, U1 x1 _. U' j! v+ T6 i8 d8 T
7 q1 {- g4 e, l# M7 ?8 X1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 ; Z4 n( i8 b+ r$ z! b
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
& k% E* R. E* Z- G0 s8 m: H4 hS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
" k2 x7 j1 M! s' b. n6 i) r
8 f4 I# G) ~2 x! e" _& m类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
4 c$ v! Y& m6 u. [6 n. L- q$ }7 G! x0 Y2 Z7 ]; U9 G1 v
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
4 ~% j4 c& R* o: F& a
( `% h! O/ o; `5 j$ C! f" qS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s$ W/ e/ X. k P2 \2 o6 ~9 j8 h
; m' V% T, u, P% O
& s6 x# x; M- I1 XS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
1 R2 h8 l& @6 L! w; z6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
# ?6 f2 [6 O/ v$ N2 L5 ^/ MS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
2 B! P9 [. k4 r: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
, l$ H; q$ V# N l(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 % i O5 s {6 _. u4 n
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 6 I! P4 Z, h; i
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于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?0 j3 t- C: \: F
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
7 _$ w, g# q$ n! H. EG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
- D0 R* F6 o1 y0 R& b+ D$ n) P# X# M" Q o; W& F, i; X* `' h- _& i
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
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' ]1 s- t! W( K6 oG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
+ a. z9 Q9 k" W4 G2 f! a4 \* z& a9 W0 U M" f* {$ S
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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