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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
0 M, f! s w3 \" F4 W* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c5 c. h9 L/ z X! V( M& m( a
凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k2 Z% i! V& ?8 m, G
8 }( N9 T' J& ?4 P# W7 Y# d0 F, I$ nG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
5 u. o4 ?# {! c* }什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
* l! ?/ J6 d- D! _+ b. U
7 P* ~& W7 H4 V6 q, h& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
; p8 _/ a/ b, ]% s- W5 H既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧! 6 \( B* m; e" p0 A4 G1 t' H
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s& _8 C5 Z5 X4 \$ x' z2 m
做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `+ j2 E! i( g4 r W6 |/ ]# A d$ T
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
. b; s9 B s! N" h- D1 O' u(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n! ?/ y! v* s3 w5 z
) u9 w3 B9 f5 `: C2 s) \2 J(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 8 J- y. V2 L1 \; K8 a) t% t
, C# P' t$ b) U, {( ~
(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t2 X: B4 i, L' G7 A' O% C
( m, z# C) l; m3 I- f
(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95
4 A/ G; V$ s b* K4 e) B- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
6 c7 J c" p; a `2 N我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
& [3 ?2 g- w U5 M( _5 O2 s# f1 s5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
- L/ }' H* S8 t0 ~S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 8 N# n/ z% t6 P( e0 v% i
7 W$ U% s; T7 JS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 # | b0 s6 j$ e; v
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s3 P0 f& K0 j7 G" h3 C" b
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
# e# s6 F* Z& y) w9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j5 _3 b+ S, f( J4 g2 s1 ^; R# Y
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \& I3 F( s6 u1 n( E9 w5 F. I8 B3 f
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
! x( @% A/ m: C; G4 `1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 9 w1 e7 o" ^, e5 y# X2 n
$ v, N* k7 L" Z8 n2 ^) K9 B6 Q H# X9 B: e1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
1 ?6 a7 t" ?; \1 T% D6 [# r% @( j& w$ v- l7 ?. t
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
. C& F' x2 |2 \6 ~6 ?3 J
$ S1 J5 F8 p' M. ~7 M1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
4 i+ h: A3 d$ D, \: b* s: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
/ N+ o; i: n! dS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
3 N1 }% a# q; J( P, W. c" [( t. j/ ~- t; S2 c, J* j
类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
5 o7 m7 ^. _' w7 W, ^5 P* o3 t2 M
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; : x3 w) ]; _# X2 ^- r5 r
4 b7 |. x5 C' M! ^/ e% {; {4 }
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s* m7 ], B+ J% Y" d* K% a5 y
; m' V% T, u, P% O
& `: i4 U4 o( q4 ^S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
5 c: Y) |1 S) _( v& V: _ ~6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a: F) Z: l2 y" S, Z4 y
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 $ p4 n- Q% W& d
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~9 C, Z8 _, r) X3 d2 a' }8 O# H) l
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o# U C. p9 T- L9 k) Y: V
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
% ]8 h3 r8 x" V$ t! b/ u好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 ) F+ q3 b6 C2 B, r4 y/ \
) q( ], k9 L T& t
& ?5 @0 r0 `9 b' O9 e3 `/ W, QB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 % A; k9 T N5 i! ]2 W; ?! i- _
3 [ U% e% k C8 E" B. t
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
- {" M3 ~ U7 E! V3 y* j7 H/ \4 E* {* @! x; X3 s; v8 K1 V- [. s
于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
" }8 r I& q7 l7 e$ X5 h* U+ Q9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
1 d4 C5 _6 U1 i7 sG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
4 S+ f. C( s# X$ @* \; N9 M( q+ D$ n) P# X# M
2 y! x( H9 U# _* C M3 B4 H9 w' wG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
& N& D$ q3 q& x5 l/ n& [/ J3 w/ t, {3 P9 M2 ~6 f
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ] P) F& H/ o/ f7 K4 z6 C
4 |& k+ r1 T1 |4 b$ _; Q- P l" ]当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
, p- [$ o$ R' r# Q! n6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i" @. x. A/ M" a; B: r
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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