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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 ; }  j( [0 K8 g1 d

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只跟踪一个联赛- c- i$ e9 X+ Z% x1 y  q
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6 Z: x; i& ^, D6 v; J+ @% f全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔0 u6 S: ~! _+ U$ x+ w3 B3 ]
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，, k4 E; w% j+ g( A$ Z

. W1 M6 g9 H' f" p偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。  K7 p7 m- o0 i% r( x

) x' s+ l9 n5 e* e方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，# e& H" n" d! S3 h. c4 p9 n

# M# v. O7 j& ^0 x& ?; M2 E. h就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱: [9 ^$ ?) P8 h; G7 Q

+ {% h& y& t1 d4 J1 V2 }当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目9 U& F( p3 ~$ r

' ^4 y# Y) k( U4 E- a% B) Q  \( z7 ?/ y7 M  ?5 a. p" Y: x
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，& t! ^) S$ ~5 Y0 G/ g

  b# H  _) q. U而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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1 H+ A" L7 p4 i3 P2 q) m! z但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。" p" O0 F3 z! C" q% X  M
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# u; r- ]* Q1 \3 h0 L6 l理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。  q& c% p$ ~% [* M; C

1 V0 u6 c* B9 H2 P' H  M$ u( h排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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( ]0 p, b% v% T但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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* o, F" E0 c! f7 O1 A: r几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
  y% S4 f7 N0 U$ t$ [; z( X+ s5 f5 y7 d" A  o; N
放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，8 ~* B0 w% C# g; ^
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就是回避了大的亏损，  D4 I2 p; X) x& T6 k1 \
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，  ^: \7 h* B4 `- {
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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