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[虚拟币交流]
艾略特波浪专家：牛市结束，比特币价格可能跌至 7 万美元或更低（转）
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以精准市场预测而闻名的艾略特波浪分析师兼 Ledn 首席投资官乔恩·格洛弗 (Jon Glover) 与看涨共识背道而驰，并发出严厉警告：在最近从 126,000 美元跌至 104,000 美元之后，始于 2023 年初的比特币牛市似乎已经结束。- z' b& B, r9 W. ~. H- W( [
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格洛弗现在预测熊市将持续，价格可能跌至 70,000 美元或更低，较目前的市场价格 108,000 美元左右下跌 35% 以上。4 L# I1 y4 q- Q$ |. a
5 [3 C, I( v* j/ ]9 w5 ~“我坚信我们已经完成了五浪上涨，现在正进入熊市，这可能至少会持续到2026年底，”格洛弗说道。“我预计比特币的交易价格将在7万美元到8万美元之间，甚至可能更低。”8 _3 T& n4 g% ^2 v9 V5 ^2 q! T: l
; b( d2 z$ ^/ f3 S k2 K0 W格洛弗解释说，虽然不能排除比特币重新测试其约 124,000 美元的历史高点或小幅攀升的可能性，但现在整体趋势已经转为看跌，这意味着几个月后价格可能会走低。
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6 ~* l6 X8 @; |/ G艾略特波浪理论) A" M! K) ^% g
艾略特波浪理论由拉尔夫·纳尔逊·艾略特于1938年提出，其基础是投资者的集体心理会以可预测的周期波动。这些周期在主趋势方向上形成一个五浪结构，其中包括三个推动浪和两个修正浪。
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比特币的看涨五浪模式始于 2022 年底，当时价格低于 20,000 美元，第五浪在本月初达到顶峰，创下 126,000 美元以上的新高。7 n" g0 b( B) b, y
* j' B! R( y l最初，预计第五波疫情将使价格到年底达到 14 万至 15 万美元之间。格洛弗打了这个电话8 月初，在比特币价格从 120,000 美元大幅下跌至 112,000 美元之后，市场看跌担忧情绪日益加剧。
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: Z" m! R9 J6 H; D1 I' p3 _' y: X虽然价格如预期般上涨，但本月涨势在 125,000 美元以上停滞，促使格洛弗警告称，如果比特币价格屡次未能守住该水平，将削弱牛市的支撑位。随后，比特币上周跌至10.5万美元，确认牛市提前结束。, k( Y5 G5 i; G1 Z. S ~3 ~/ e1 {
" ~( M9 N2 H5 G) O2 }, x2 x“既然我们已经跌破10.8万美元，我准备判断一下，我们究竟是走在下图橙色的路径上，从而有望涨至14.5万美元；还是走在HS的路径上，这意味着我们已经见顶了，”格洛弗说道。“我的判断是：比特币的牛市结束了！”2 u6 S- {" _; T! i$ b4 d
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比特币的看涨五浪结构已经结束。（Jon Glover，TradingView）
5 Q# t# v1 g& N# {. [这种看跌的预期与比特币的历史趋势相符：每次减半事件发生后约18个月，比特币价格都会达到峰值，然后进入熊市。最近一次减半发生在2024年4月。
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Amberdata 的数据显示，BTC 在 Deribit 挂牌的看跌期权（提供下行保护）的交易价格高于 2026 年 9 月到期的看涨期权，这支持了 Glover 的看跌情绪。这表明一些交易员正在为持续到明年的下行风险做准备。6 Y H) Z7 \3 I0 X @
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