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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。) W7 B; ?; J" ?2 G+ U9 i
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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/ a% T8 R5 R& C- Q; i4 NUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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5 E8 X D: U; B ^# F/ F, y% I开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
o s& z) K# V5 E) R; A6 y( `2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。. ?6 Q8 ^9 h* K& d* j5 y
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来源：Alphractal( N& }5 `3 e; R- M( E: h' A
; n0 U5 w* c G+ {' B: D15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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0 u/ G" \5 j( g' K4 h尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了* c9 C3 N4 k2 A3 q" y3 r
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X" ~0 K9 _, N* G' h3 q5 N
! O/ O9 z) V8 g1 b1 h- ?* h根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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* w2 s' a3 }& j$ ~# PBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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7 \' j) ^+ m( t7 P正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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& ~8 _8 u* s7 P) l" y- V随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。* V t/ |. Q, u9 p6 V9 m' `
0 q6 }! @9 p$ f空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
8 h5 W" F" E7 ~6 i/ U Q/ E/ a* o经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。2 R* C$ ]4 a6 r% `2 ]
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来源：TradingView* k* ]- V, B. G/ @; ?
: y' v' Y+ u4 v9 m日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。& u# ^# S: r, |/ N; O( e, B
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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5 f- @2 h! \6 M$ V突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。/ O/ b; q' ^+ h+ M
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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