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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
0 @( _5 P. c) ^: f) V/ S) R3 Z* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
7 E/ E- e' H; _% c凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
" N5 i) C h' }) U" G
& u% I* |* n( t6 E* u7 ZG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
& Z5 L: V1 [- H! F8 f' x7 Y3 r$ W什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
3 d# n3 O8 Y3 \4 G P
% o& k% ]2 B% G5 h: h! [; @$ O& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
3 O3 ~! z+ Y( h8 u既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 6 |3 {! k8 P3 U* A0 K
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s; l- }+ g* T) o; L4 V
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `1 N* f: [$ s% |) T& H! D) A5 f
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
8 S( X! j U7 T1 ](1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
7 l, k8 I4 \. ^, s, h
4 |2 x/ J+ N3 E3 k: \0 A# q(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
" }1 l; h( K- g9 w
0 ~0 |' i, i# V# p- K5 k(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t% V" w9 }: }2 B# z
4 r# i a% x$ L. i1 h
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 . q0 o6 y; Q0 ]& z( I" [
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
1 k$ H6 Z0 T7 @我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
b( i& n K2 W7 |3 V, }: c. J5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
9 x" D, N3 `1 AS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 * _! z2 u# z) s, }( A
- N9 y4 j7 _6 S$ u- I
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
$ s, O4 u: v7 t7 u% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
% c' S7 \! h/ U; h1 ]S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 * ?$ Q& z3 o8 J
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j, t: L! V6 M; d/ L6 C+ ^1 G
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \! K" M9 e' z" N2 x7 m2 Q
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
2 U v( W* @) e1 h# V9 d: b! u7 `" @! v: j1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 % }6 O7 `, @6 a1 V1 {9 o! y
6 H4 _' s X2 }! p' J1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l9 K7 }5 @- e. ~1 ^
, K+ j. Q! p5 d3 @2 Z5 X) I1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q+ t( K/ t# l$ c2 O6 N8 _: {
' f ?) a7 z2 E. q; ^" p
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
) m; i& J( R# h6 {8 F4 o: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
2 ]4 I8 o5 V1 r* o0 FS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T$ I& f) w9 t$ t2 U; J
5 n3 B8 m) _. x, n7 b) O类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
& k) w8 C X; ]0 l) G2 |/ ]3 G1 t x- x3 Q, _* B
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; , [# {: @ w4 ?: I! ]5 V
7 \1 f k F, {* s; g
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
9 u& x6 v1 w$ M% O5 w+ C7 E+ H; m' V% T, u, P% O1 A6 v8 r) Y- @, ^' {3 y
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 ( d, }! b `. V6 ?
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
' t ?- S% I; jS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 + Q! x2 k: D$ `6 O) T% \
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~% n2 }' s5 R$ s4 a0 n, S! K+ n; S
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
$ g. j6 q9 s8 c6 x* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \- D4 a. L7 p- t
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 3 M4 m0 r7 ?) G
) q( ], k9 L T& t
! |: Y6 n( l- J% O, kB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 - C0 `( }, y+ s
+ O! K& N0 p1 j: i( OF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 ( D* \: M4 _3 @+ a# a/ j
) B1 ^' |3 |4 l4 j- @9 S于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?/ S, @, E9 `4 D6 e
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {( M% L+ M5 b# a( l( {3 X5 [9 B
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
# o( U2 \- K' j0 L7 U+ D$ n) P# X# M
% g c7 x9 K9 U Z/ Z5 Q, M0 nG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
0 v6 N: W5 s, W4 j0 J9 W4 F! a) J5 ]! R4 F8 I3 d* e; a
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]6 ]: m A0 m ~% M1 v
; d% ~4 O2 G( z当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \9 H9 I& d) v6 L* F% A
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
: P& M5 x& P" G+ a- Z; i通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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