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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑* p! ]6 ] W: ^
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5 l1 n( M8 [2 \, W- c4 {/ J" z! `凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
' C7 u+ B. o$ ~# h( _; u
' O# I4 o3 I/ U0 d/ E5 tG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)+ q Q, y8 F4 [! ]2 b8 P
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
) H2 k. K4 ?: N V' E3 s
# r. ^, z1 y* [& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h1 Y. U9 y+ [7 {- W4 ?
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
0 \9 O* O% \; \9 i; }% ]+ ^7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s7 Y0 \* u" R9 h* P+ S3 i; U! D
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `0 x1 W. K" c& ?8 f8 m- K2 r
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d' E! P5 K z% c7 e0 ^
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n) v/ J) ]6 k5 V- Q$ M/ C/ [/ a9 B
' T% Z7 U, Q+ J) n, o% n1 n(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
# \# g9 ~0 t2 F& i5 n
9 P* N1 l& M3 |% l: f- O$ @(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
* h/ V3 P& j$ X( H3 ^! h3 Q# X6 ]" [% L5 N+ i* T9 u
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
4 d) C! W! r' s6 Q( m- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
3 d1 d' z, ?3 y$ b( f: `, I5 s1 g我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ; s+ |/ a7 S( H3 f5 V
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
1 q& O& ^7 a# @! NS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 4 M Z( V: x5 W/ A3 d
% ?1 Y% H. K0 j& L xS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 : F6 y3 S# @" E
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
+ u/ A @: P9 a; P' k; d) F. ]S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 8 d) }$ l# G7 S3 o" {4 y
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j0 X- _: W/ e5 Q& w( U& F% L
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
& |7 d- ]3 G/ E" l \& N8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v+ p( Y/ X* i2 j; G4 C
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
" A; y/ m5 l2 i8 Q; R, n
1 y9 A/ w1 S7 s8 z6 U1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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/ m* t! n, s# Q- w, l1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
" U; A" |( ?* V5 B. L: ^( d' U8 c+ I! W: s8 j- Z ~
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 m' w+ H+ V7 v+ z8 B, A
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r$ A9 S% _9 U. d2 i; l2 u( m$ _$ N+ l
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T, \; [ Q& }# s$ c
) E8 J/ y# r; R$ n7 H类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
; V7 d7 _( k8 z1 B" q
! U( z. f$ x0 V" C( y! O& ^; d) G+ ?S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
* T5 i2 b. M0 _7 A
! Y7 d- l* p9 h$ G& a7 R& wS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s; R6 C$ s7 ?2 R, z' u1 i# h8 P% @
; m' V% T, u, P% O
2 k& g# P! e. {. I# R' @S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
& Q: Y u0 e* F6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
3 v5 I, ]9 N1 C% n' PS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
7 i) D" W" S5 q6 L7 L" S5 F: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~' `" G' c- T- h1 s3 q5 T
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o; M& N" |5 S/ \* v
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \9 y7 d4 M+ }* l. d
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
- i# B' P* i3 L2 {5 s0 O; W) q( ], k9 L T& t- r ^% e' s4 e( }
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
9 R) @6 b: L* z1 x7 D/ c
) U0 G/ o+ p6 N6 t5 d+ l, GF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 : A' i D# B+ D+ s' [0 d
4 p& L4 q% b/ Q8 V* S3 Z; @+ n' C* {于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
! A+ @3 S: b1 p- ~ r9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
) o% y2 V% A+ R4 g; j4 Z* s; WG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
) x5 v; P8 c2 g9 f: y" {0 T+ D$ n) P# X# M
0 E5 x1 E! z, s3 t IG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 7 F: I9 r2 K7 ^0 {' S/ p; r
7 |. Y; A5 W0 x ?. mG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
: |( P! i# g, R& @5 a, V9 A8 |$ o9 e6 l# C" G, A; J5 H+ m: F9 z
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
! E5 [: O4 ~$ g$ n6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i% o& ?( ^9 _$ g) i/ ?4 l
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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